GMO's quarterly letter

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Moraen's picture
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NYC - wasn't quite the bloodbath your were expecting I imagine.

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suspended wrote:good time to buy
Thanks ML Gone
Looks like an avatar you have used anyway

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Moraen wrote:NYC - wasn't quite the bloodbath your were expecting I imagine.
Not at all what I was expecting.  That last hour rally was impressive.  There was a rumor floating around that the ECB will announce a bailout of Greece over the weekend.  Not sure if that's what triggered it.  Or if the consumer credit numbers released at 3:00 beating expectations (which was still pretty weak, IMO) did it.  Or if the bulls have simply regained control...This doesn't change my macro view.  Still bearish.  Think fair value on the S&P is closer to 900.  Will take positions in individual names as my price targets are hit on the way down.  Incredibly bearish on China.  Got long again on USD v EUR a few weeks ago.  Gonna hold that to 130 or so. 

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Yeah,  it looks like it was a short squeeze based on the ECB news on Greece.  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHWYxn1VA98A&pos=1Monday will be interesting if this rumor fails to materialize...

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western europe debt "issue" is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever.     funny

ummmm hello.    spain aint leh.     duh

dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.   
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long

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NYCTrader wrote: Yeah,  it looks like it was a short squeeze based on the ECB news on Greece.  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHWYxn1VA98A&pos=1Monday will be interesting if this rumor fails to materialize...

Greece gdp = 343 B

WMT's revenues = 420 B

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Sorry Shania, I'm not joining the bulls based on one hour of trading from 3:00-4:00 pm on a Friday when shorts got spooked going into the weekend because of a rumor the ECB is about to take the unprecedented step of bailing out a sovereign nation.  That isn't the signal I'm looking for. 

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Jobs situation is improving.  As all bears have said, that is the key.

Shania Twain's picture
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Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings Dividends
1960 5.34% 3.41% 58.11 3.10 1.98
1961 4.71% 2.85% 71.55 3.37 2.04
1962 5.81% 3.40% 63.1 3.67 2.15
1963 5.51% 3.13% 75.02 4.13 2.35
1964 5.62% 3.05% 84.75 4.76 2.58
1965 5.73% 3.06% 92.43 5.30 2.83
1966 6.74% 3.59% 80.33 5.41 2.88
1967 5.66% 3.09% 96.47 5.46 2.98
1968 5.51% 2.93% 103.86 5.72 3.04
1969 6.63% 3.52% 92.06 6.10 3.24
1970 5.98% 3.46% 92.15 5.51 3.19
1971 5.46% 3.10% 102.09 5.57 3.16
1972 5.23% 2.70% 118.05 6.17 3.19
1973 8.16% 3.70% 97.55 7.96 3.61
1974 13.64% 5.43% 68.56 9.35 3.72
1975 8.55% 4.14% 90.19 7.71 3.73
1976 9.07% 3.93% 107.46 9.75 4.22
1977 11.43% 5.11% 95.1 10.87 4.86
1978 12.11% 5.39% 96.11 11.64 5.18
1979 13.48% 5.53% 107.94 14.55 5.97
1980 11.04% 4.74% 135.76 14.99 6.44
1981 12.39% 5.57% 122.55 15.18 6.83
1982 9.83% 4.93% 140.64 13.82 6.93
1983 8.06% 4.32% 164.93 13.29 7.12
1984 10.07% 4.68% 167.24 16.84 7.83
1985 7.42% 3.88% 211.28 15.68 8.20
1986 5.96% 3.38% 242.17 14.43 8.19
1987 6.49% 3.71% 247.08 16.04 9.17
1988 8.69% 3.68% 277.72 24.12 10.22
1989 6.88% 3.32% 353.4 24.32 11.73
1990 6.86% 3.74% 330.22 22.65 12.35
1991 4.63% 3.11% 417.09 19.30 12.97
1992 4.79% 2.90% 435.71 20.87 12.64
1993 5.77% 2.72% 466.45 26.90 12.69
1994 6.91% 2.91% 459.27 31.75 13.36
1995 6.12% 2.30% 615.93 37.70 14.17
1996 5.49% 2.01% 740.74 40.63 14.89
1997 4.54% 1.60% 970.43 44.09 15.52
1998 3.60% 1.32% 1229.23 44.27 16.20
1999 3.52% 1.14% 1469.25 51.68 16.71
2000 4.25% 1.23% 1320.28 56.13 16.27
2001 3.38% 1.37% 1148.09 38.85 15.74
2002 5.23% 1.83% 879.82 46.04 16.08
2003 4.92% 1.61% 1111.91 54.69 17.88
2004 5.58% 1.60% 1211.92 67.68 19.407
2005 6.12% 1.79% 1248.29 76.45 22.38
2006 6.18% 1.77% 1418.3 87.72 25.05
2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 82.54 27.73
2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 65.39 28.05
2009 5.35% 2.00% 1115.1 59.65 22.31

2010 SPX earnings $80 ish!!!!!

subprime? back window

new normal this Billy boy

    stocks cheap

suspended's picture
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AGEMAN wrote: suspended wrote:good time to buy
Thanks ML Gone
Looks like an avatar you have used anyway

Hope you bought!

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suspended wrote: AGEMAN wrote: suspended wrote:good time to buy
Thanks ML Gone
Looks like an avatar you have used anyway Hope you bought!
No, I didn't buy....I think it is time to get conservative again for awhile.  Monday we may see a pop, but I don't think it is going to last since support levels were broken on Thursday.  I hope I am wrong..............

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In this environment, i would have expected to see a selloff on a Friday afternoon with market participants not wanting to be LONG over the weekend. Not the other way around. Tells me there is good underlying strenght here.
 
Does anyone really expect that Greece or any other PIG will default on their debt? C'mon, the world isnt going to let that happen. EU will step in and if necessary, other countries, World Bank, whatever. We've already seen that the powers that be will do what they have to do.
Corporate balance sheets are stronger than ever, companies are lean as they can be in costs structure, dividends are rising again, jobs which are a lagging indicator anyway, came in better than expected yesterday. Q4 earnings are beating all over the place. Everyone is buying technology, (the products, not just the stocks). Capital flows to innovation, and the U.S. innovates.
The emerging economies story is old, maybe a little long in tooth, but still true and intact longer term
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8
Short term cautious? maybe, but i have a feeling not. I'm a bull looking out past my nose. No Armeggedon

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

Sportsfreakbob wrote:In this environment, i would have expected to see a selloff on a Friday afternoon with market participants not wanting to be LONG over the weekend. Not the other way around. Tells me there is good underlying strenght here.
 
Does anyone really expect that Greece or any other PIG will default on their debt? C'mon, the world isnt going to let that happen. EU will step in and if necessary, other countries, World Bank, whatever. We've already seen that the powers that be will do what they have to do.
Corporate balance sheets are stronger than ever, companies are lean as they can be in costs structure, dividends are rising again, jobs which are a lagging indicator anyway, came in better than expected yesterday. Q4 earnings are beating all over the place. Everyone is buying technology, (the products, not just the stocks). Capital flows to innovation, and the U.S. innovates.
The emerging economies story is old, maybe a little long in tooth, but still true and intact longer term
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8
Short term cautious? maybe, but i have a feeling not. I'm a bull looking out past my nose. No Armeggedon
I agree with a lot of what you said, but there was a rumor that the EU was going to bail out Greece over the weekend so there was a lot of short covering by traders so if that happened it wouldn't catch them short.  Also, we seem to be in an environment of sell the good news.  The good earnings news has been sold.  The good economic news has been sold.  I don't believe that any of these countries will default in the near term for sure and they may be bailed out, but remember the reaction of the markets to the bail out of the banks.  Caution is still in order after the run up we have had especially until we see once again that there is buying on the good news rather than selling. 

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Won't disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.

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Sportsfreakbob wrote: Won't disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.

agreed. But I know 12 months from now the market will be higher. Time Frame boyz

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08-09 scared people BIG TIME.

perfect trap
late 08 death sell off
then a calm

then feb mar 09 BLOODBATH

SO MANY got out

so many with cash at 0% now

1070 break was no so hot.
bet it holds
friday's action says it all

money LOOKING for a home

new highs

intra day friday (1044?) is the low (like july 7)

repeat:

GREECE gdp 342 B

WMT's revenues    420 B

F greece.   Its post tramatic bear market syndrome   

EVERYONE LOOKING FOR NEXT SHOE TOO FALL.

its comical
watching CNBC

Showing the GD Latvia bond auction

aint gonna happen

too easy. too many would be right

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suspended wrote:

Hope you bought!

mel,

your a bull.

come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train

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Sportsfreakbob wrote:Won't disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.
I don't have any of those clients in their 40's and 50's.  I have mostly 60's-80's so I have to be more tactical in these situations.  I already have most of my clients set up very conservatively, but I did make some moves today.  It seems the dollar may be strengthening for awhile, so I lightened up on MLP holdings that were up 40-70% in the past 12-18 months since I put some clients into them.  We will look to buy them back in a couple of months perhaps if we can buy them lower.  Also, lightened up on EM etf's for a client in a tactical account.  The long term is a bunch of short term moves you make.  I think most clients see through the old buy and hold we can ride this out routine.  If we want to keep our clients in the market and not have to get that call that says go to all cash then we have to be tactical in these markets.  My goal is to keep the client invested (not necessarily in stocks) so they don't bail completely.  I was pretty successful at that during the market downturn.  I was very fortunate to make a couple of good tactical calls as well that kept people invested and made them some money.  (Buying a lot of MLP's and Muni funds beginning in Oct-Dec 2008)

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Shania Twain wrote:western europe debt "issue" is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever.     funny

ummmm hello.    spain aint leh.     duh

dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.   
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long

Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest.  The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.20.  ECB is backed into a corner.  They have to do something about Greece.  But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?)   Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test.  Not sure about you, but I'm betting most investors aren't going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out.  Greenback's going to be the safe haven of choice.  Get long USD.

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AGEMAN wrote:[
I don't have any of those clients in their 40's and 50's.  I have mostly 60's-80's so I have to be more tactical in these situations.  I already have most of my clients set up very conservatively, but I did make some moves today.  It seems the dollar may be strengthening for awhile, so I lightened up on MLP holdings that were up 40-70% in the past 12-18 months since I put some clients into them.  We will look to buy them back in a couple of months perhaps if we can buy them lower.  Also, lightened up on EM etf's for a client in a tactical account.  The long term is a bunch of short term moves you make.  I think most clients see through the old buy and hold we can ride this out routine.  If we want to keep our clients in the market and not have to get that call that says go to all cash then we have to be tactical in these markets.  My goal is to keep the client invested (not necessarily in stocks) so they don't bail completely.  I was pretty successful at that during the market downturn.  I was very fortunate to make a couple of good tactical calls as well that kept people invested and made them some money.  (Buying a lot of MLP's and Muni funds beginning in Oct-Dec 2008)
 
I did a lot of the same late last week, for my clients who are volatility-sensitive or 50-60 ISH. Sold some DBC and other commodity / weak dollar related stuff, lightened up on EM, and Materials ETF's.
Question  - whats your rational for selling the MLP's, ? They aren;t that sensitive to the price of the commodity, they are more sensitive to interest rates.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

This forum is HILARIOUS! Some of you have ZERO credibility. buy buy buy, that's all you know. Monkeys that do what they're told, good job monkey's. You have Shania trying to throw out support numbers that are a joke. ( probably from CNBC ) Morons saying people don't want to go long over the weekend. ( Holy crap if that isn't stupid! no one wanted to stay short. 19 out of the last 21 Mondays were up.) For everyone that doesn't know what Friday's last hour was...........short covering. That is the only thing that makes moves like this. Like, March 6th 09' on a smaller scale. And NO Shania, this is not a bottom. If you want to know what to watch....If SPX breaks 1103 on good volume, bulls will run! Geez........The simplest things are a mystery here. My opinion....bad few weeks ( weekly charts are still horendous ) rally back to 1100 then a fall to the lows.
buy US dollar
short gold
short market
treasuries
cash
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it.  I appologize for the harsh words, but some of you have been trying to bait me into an arguement for the last week. Also, 2 new clients last week!!!!

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Sportsfreakbob wrote:AGEMAN wrote:[
I don't have any of those clients in their 40's and 50's.  I have mostly 60's-80's so I have to be more tactical in these situations.  I already have most of my clients set up very conservatively, but I did make some moves today.  It seems the dollar may be strengthening for awhile, so I lightened up on MLP holdings that were up 40-70% in the past 12-18 months since I put some clients into them.  We will look to buy them back in a couple of months perhaps if we can buy them lower.  Also, lightened up on EM etf's for a client in a tactical account.  The long term is a bunch of short term moves you make.  I think most clients see through the old buy and hold we can ride this out routine.  If we want to keep our clients in the market and not have to get that call that says go to all cash then we have to be tactical in these markets.  My goal is to keep the client invested (not necessarily in stocks) so they don't bail completely.  I was pretty successful at that during the market downturn.  I was very fortunate to make a couple of good tactical calls as well that kept people invested and made them some money.  (Buying a lot of MLP's and Muni funds beginning in Oct-Dec 2008)
 
I did a lot of the same late last week, for my clients who are volatility-sensitive or 50-60 ISH. Sold some DBC and other commodity / weak dollar related stuff, lightened up on EM, and Materials ETF's.
Question  - whats your rational for selling the MLP's, ? They aren;t that sensitive to the price of the commodity, they are more sensitive to interest rates.
The main reason I sold the MLP's is that although they aren't completely sensitive to the commodities, they seem to be reacting to the strong dollar in a negative way.  Also, I wanted to lock in some nice gains of 30-80% on positions and look to buy back lower.  I didn't sell for every client, mostly in fee based accounts that are more tactical than brokerage accounts.

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Shania Twain wrote: suspended wrote:

Hope you bought!

mel,

your a bull.

come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train

Your right Shania, I was wrong. I am a bull now. Mlgone changed my viewpoint on this

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So you convinced yourself.....You are ML Gone, but we won't tell.......

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No announcement from ECB on Greece over the weekend.  Bad news for the bulls.  Today could get ugly...

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howboutshoeshine wrote: This forum is HILARIOUS! Some of you have ZERO credibility. buy buy buy, that's all you know. Monkeys that do what they're told, good job monkey's. You have Shania trying to throw out support numbers that are a joke. ( probably from CNBC ) Morons saying people don't want to go long over the weekend. ( Holy crap if that isn't stupid! no one wanted to stay short. 19 out of the last 21 Mondays were up.) For everyone that doesn't know what Friday's last hour was...........short covering. That is the only thing that makes moves like this. Like, March 6th 09' on a smaller scale. And NO Shania, this is not a bottom. If you want to know what to watch....If SPX breaks 1103 on good volume, bulls will run! Geez........The simplest things are a mystery here. My opinion....bad few weeks ( weekly charts are still horendous ) rally back to 1100 then a fall to the lows.
buy US dollar
short gold
short market
treasuries
cash
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it.  I appologize for the harsh words, but some of you have been trying to bait me into an arguement for the last week. Also, 2 new clients last week!!!!

don't you make like 120K?

Shania Twain's picture
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[quote=
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 

 
short spx 940ish
short gold   890ish
 
I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correI have been correct, don't forget it. ct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 
(buy price needs to be LOWER the sell price. )

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Shania Twain wrote:[quote=
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 

 
short spx 940ish
short gold   890ish
 
I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correI have been correct, don't forget it. ct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 
(buy price needs to be LOWER the sell price. )
 
Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Funny thing is... you know you are lying,but you have been a weel-disciplined spin machine for so long, you probably even believe your lies.

Shania Twain's picture
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Originally posted by howboutshoeshine

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Funny thing is... you know you are lying,but you have been a weel-disciplined spin machine for so long, you probably even believe your lies[

Just going by your posts.    

This, of course is the official record of this message board.

Please show us when you "bought low" or "sold high"

Before it happened.

(that is another important point.   For example, if you pick the Aints to win the super bowl it MUST be BEFORE the game is over. we have found over time that it is easier to call teh market AFTER it has happened. many people are good at this)     

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. Do you know how I know?? I've made money!!!!!! Oh ya, for every single client. conservative aggressive, doesn't matter. Keep spinning your webs, soon enough you won't be able too.

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howboutshoeshine wrote: can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. Do you know how I know?? I've made money!!!!!! Oh ya, for every single client. conservative aggressive, doesn't matter. Keep spinning your webs, soon enough you won't be able too.

Yeah your a big hitter shoe. How much did you make again? 120K Wow you are a player. Tool boy

Shania Twain's picture
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howboutshoeshine wrote: can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster.

short spx at 940.
retest
acats-a-raining
swans-a-singing
new lows

sorry.
I thought you meant market was going lower.

Shania Twain's picture
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wait   its swans-a-swimming

right?

who is
a-singing?

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: howboutshoeshine wrote: can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. short spx at 940. retest acats-a-raining swans-a-singing new lows sorry. I thought you meant market was going lower.
 

 
You can do it Shania!!!!!!!!!

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   Quote  Reply Posted: 04 Jan. 2010 at 9:24am

Jan 4 2010 shorts feeling PAIN. next 3 weeks gonna be fun. naz looks even better the industrials/spx

PURE GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Good monkey.

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maybe you should pull your market crash post from Nov 09, now that was a call

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Shania, I believe you have an "admirer"

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Topic: Portfolio of the year    Posted: 25 Nov. 2009 at 11:47am

Originally posted by howboutshoeshineWell, Losers. I'm done, you're too stupid for me.
10% US dollar
15% 20 year treasuries
15% corporates
15% aggregate bond index
5% short GOLD
10% TIPS
15% BIL
CASHOdd.....No mention of shorts????? Not till mid-January anyways......... Spin spin spin........
 

 
Point proven, I will not be negative to you again Shania. Truce?

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howboutshoeshine wrote: 1120 gone on spx. PLEASE cover those shortsBy Shania Twain, 24 Dec. 2009 at 11:22am

ummm. yes.    

(although did pull a bit off table when sentiment got nuts.)

I am a ragging mf bull.

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actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.

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Moraen wrote:actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
 
I stand corrected. However, that short is up 5%. I put it on in Mid-Nov. I added to it, but I was on a vaca. from this site, so I have no proof. Believe me or not??? Up to you.

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go back on vacation.

Shania Twain's picture
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Moraen wrote: actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.

acerbic.

damn good word.

i goog'ed it

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: Moraen wrote: actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit. acerbic. damn good word. i goog'ed it
 
As did I.

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ok...shine.

Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.

Bulls need to make a stand here.

pivot   1070ish area

do not want to violate Friday's low.
today was really disappointing

just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.

judgement time

   

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Bulls will not stand up until we pass 1035 but before 1017. People are still scared. The buy has to be great to talk them out of the bond funds and into equities. Conversations like this will need to occur...

Hey Doug... Doug Doug Goose.... How's it going? Oh really..., yeah we are all hurting, well you know down was the new up haha. Anyway, you wanna know the reason I called you Dan? Well I wanted to let you know that the markets are really pulling back right now and this may be the last chance you have to get in below 10,000. I would say once the DOW cracks 10 again it will not look back. Well anyway Dean I won't take up too much time, I just wanted to let you know about the great opportunities in the Small Blend Value Caps for Intermediate Corps right now and you should really get 50,000 back to work!!! How does an investment like this sound to you Dave?
p.s. I am a Bull as well Shania and that pic is my desktop background. Can't wait until the market opens. I love down days.

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  

DeBolt's picture
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Joined: 2009-07-12

Oh shoot...  My bad Dale I had your number beside the wrong name on my note pad of people to call today. Well somebody is gonna jump at this opportunity so if you change your mind Dwain just give me a shout back buddy.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Shania Twain wrote:ok...shine. Today was some really crappy action. Mutual fund Monday also. Bulls need to make a stand here. pivot   1070ish area do not want to violate Friday's low. today was really disappointing just like early July (July 7th wash out) bulls will make a stand here. judgement time    
 
This is quite different than July. Volume is absolutely screaming on the downside. A gap up in the morning does not help your cause.  It's meant to make you feel good and provide others with a higher selling price.  19 out of the last 22 Mondays have been up, so yesterday should not have been expected, that's why everyone covered shorts on Friday. If this thing can bust through 1103 on good volume the bulls will be back. Until then, this is all road noise. There is a 160% premium on 700 November puts and the market is starting to show it's hand. I anticipate more fall to come and a rally back to around 1100 before we head to the lows. I hope I am wrong.

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