GMO's quarterly letter

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Moraen's picture
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Jobs situation is improving.  As all bears have said, that is the key.

Shania Twain's picture
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Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings Dividends
1960 5.34% 3.41% 58.11 3.10 1.98
1961 4.71% 2.85% 71.55 3.37 2.04
1962 5.81% 3.40% 63.1 3.67 2.15
1963 5.51% 3.13% 75.02 4.13 2.35
1964 5.62% 3.05% 84.75 4.76 2.58
1965 5.73% 3.06% 92.43 5.30 2.83
1966 6.74% 3.59% 80.33 5.41 2.88
1967 5.66% 3.09% 96.47 5.46 2.98
1968 5.51% 2.93% 103.86 5.72 3.04
1969 6.63% 3.52% 92.06 6.10 3.24
1970 5.98% 3.46% 92.15 5.51 3.19
1971 5.46% 3.10% 102.09 5.57 3.16
1972 5.23% 2.70% 118.05 6.17 3.19
1973 8.16% 3.70% 97.55 7.96 3.61
1974 13.64% 5.43% 68.56 9.35 3.72
1975 8.55% 4.14% 90.19 7.71 3.73
1976 9.07% 3.93% 107.46 9.75 4.22
1977 11.43% 5.11% 95.1 10.87 4.86
1978 12.11% 5.39% 96.11 11.64 5.18
1979 13.48% 5.53% 107.94 14.55 5.97
1980 11.04% 4.74% 135.76 14.99 6.44
1981 12.39% 5.57% 122.55 15.18 6.83
1982 9.83% 4.93% 140.64 13.82 6.93
1983 8.06% 4.32% 164.93 13.29 7.12
1984 10.07% 4.68% 167.24 16.84 7.83
1985 7.42% 3.88% 211.28 15.68 8.20
1986 5.96% 3.38% 242.17 14.43 8.19
1987 6.49% 3.71% 247.08 16.04 9.17
1988 8.69% 3.68% 277.72 24.12 10.22
1989 6.88% 3.32% 353.4 24.32 11.73
1990 6.86% 3.74% 330.22 22.65 12.35
1991 4.63% 3.11% 417.09 19.30 12.97
1992 4.79% 2.90% 435.71 20.87 12.64
1993 5.77% 2.72% 466.45 26.90 12.69
1994 6.91% 2.91% 459.27 31.75 13.36
1995 6.12% 2.30% 615.93 37.70 14.17
1996 5.49% 2.01% 740.74 40.63 14.89
1997 4.54% 1.60% 970.43 44.09 15.52
1998 3.60% 1.32% 1229.23 44.27 16.20
1999 3.52% 1.14% 1469.25 51.68 16.71
2000 4.25% 1.23% 1320.28 56.13 16.27
2001 3.38% 1.37% 1148.09 38.85 15.74
2002 5.23% 1.83% 879.82 46.04 16.08
2003 4.92% 1.61% 1111.91 54.69 17.88
2004 5.58% 1.60% 1211.92 67.68 19.407
2005 6.12% 1.79% 1248.29 76.45 22.38
2006 6.18% 1.77% 1418.3 87.72 25.05
2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 82.54 27.73
2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 65.39 28.05
2009 5.35% 2.00% 1115.1 59.65 22.31

2010 SPX earnings $80 ish!!!!!

subprime? back window

new normal this Billy boy

    stocks cheap

suspended's picture
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AGEMAN wrote: suspended wrote:good time to buy
Thanks ML Gone
Looks like an avatar you have used anyway

Hope you bought!

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In this environment, i would have expected to see a selloff on a Friday afternoon with market participants not wanting to be LONG over the weekend. Not the other way around. Tells me there is good underlying strenght here.
 
Does anyone really expect that Greece or any other PIG will default on their debt? C'mon, the world isnt going to let that happen. EU will step in and if necessary, other countries, World Bank, whatever. We've already seen that the powers that be will do what they have to do.
Corporate balance sheets are stronger than ever, companies are lean as they can be in costs structure, dividends are rising again, jobs which are a lagging indicator anyway, came in better than expected yesterday. Q4 earnings are beating all over the place. Everyone is buying technology, (the products, not just the stocks). Capital flows to innovation, and the U.S. innovates.
The emerging economies story is old, maybe a little long in tooth, but still true and intact longer term
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8
Short term cautious? maybe, but i have a feeling not. I'm a bull looking out past my nose. No Armeggedon

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Won't disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.

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Sportsfreakbob wrote: Won't disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.

agreed. But I know 12 months from now the market will be higher. Time Frame boyz

Shania Twain's picture
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08-09 scared people BIG TIME.

perfect trap
late 08 death sell off
then a calm

then feb mar 09 BLOODBATH

SO MANY got out

so many with cash at 0% now

1070 break was no so hot.
bet it holds
friday's action says it all

money LOOKING for a home

new highs

intra day friday (1044?) is the low (like july 7)

repeat:

GREECE gdp 342 B

WMT's revenues    420 B

F greece.   Its post tramatic bear market syndrome   

EVERYONE LOOKING FOR NEXT SHOE TOO FALL.

its comical
watching CNBC

Showing the GD Latvia bond auction

aint gonna happen

too easy. too many would be right

Shania Twain's picture
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suspended wrote:

Hope you bought!

mel,

your a bull.

come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train

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Shania Twain wrote:western europe debt "issue" is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever.     funny

ummmm hello.    spain aint leh.     duh

dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.   
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long

Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest.  The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.20.  ECB is backed into a corner.  They have to do something about Greece.  But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?)   Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test.  Not sure about you, but I'm betting most investors aren't going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out.  Greenback's going to be the safe haven of choice.  Get long USD.

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AGEMAN wrote:[
I don't have any of those clients in their 40's and 50's.  I have mostly 60's-80's so I have to be more tactical in these situations.  I already have most of my clients set up very conservatively, but I did make some moves today.  It seems the dollar may be strengthening for awhile, so I lightened up on MLP holdings that were up 40-70% in the past 12-18 months since I put some clients into them.  We will look to buy them back in a couple of months perhaps if we can buy them lower.  Also, lightened up on EM etf's for a client in a tactical account.  The long term is a bunch of short term moves you make.  I think most clients see through the old buy and hold we can ride this out routine.  If we want to keep our clients in the market and not have to get that call that says go to all cash then we have to be tactical in these markets.  My goal is to keep the client invested (not necessarily in stocks) so they don't bail completely.  I was pretty successful at that during the market downturn.  I was very fortunate to make a couple of good tactical calls as well that kept people invested and made them some money.  (Buying a lot of MLP's and Muni funds beginning in Oct-Dec 2008)
 
I did a lot of the same late last week, for my clients who are volatility-sensitive or 50-60 ISH. Sold some DBC and other commodity / weak dollar related stuff, lightened up on EM, and Materials ETF's.
Question  - whats your rational for selling the MLP's, ? They aren;t that sensitive to the price of the commodity, they are more sensitive to interest rates.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

This forum is HILARIOUS! Some of you have ZERO credibility. buy buy buy, that's all you know. Monkeys that do what they're told, good job monkey's. You have Shania trying to throw out support numbers that are a joke. ( probably from CNBC ) Morons saying people don't want to go long over the weekend. ( Holy crap if that isn't stupid! no one wanted to stay short. 19 out of the last 21 Mondays were up.) For everyone that doesn't know what Friday's last hour was...........short covering. That is the only thing that makes moves like this. Like, March 6th 09' on a smaller scale. And NO Shania, this is not a bottom. If you want to know what to watch....If SPX breaks 1103 on good volume, bulls will run! Geez........The simplest things are a mystery here. My opinion....bad few weeks ( weekly charts are still horendous ) rally back to 1100 then a fall to the lows.
buy US dollar
short gold
short market
treasuries
cash
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it.  I appologize for the harsh words, but some of you have been trying to bait me into an arguement for the last week. Also, 2 new clients last week!!!!

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Shania Twain wrote: suspended wrote:

Hope you bought!

mel,

your a bull.

come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train

Your right Shania, I was wrong. I am a bull now. Mlgone changed my viewpoint on this

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No announcement from ECB on Greece over the weekend.  Bad news for the bulls.  Today could get ugly...

suspended's picture
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howboutshoeshine wrote: This forum is HILARIOUS! Some of you have ZERO credibility. buy buy buy, that's all you know. Monkeys that do what they're told, good job monkey's. You have Shania trying to throw out support numbers that are a joke. ( probably from CNBC ) Morons saying people don't want to go long over the weekend. ( Holy crap if that isn't stupid! no one wanted to stay short. 19 out of the last 21 Mondays were up.) For everyone that doesn't know what Friday's last hour was...........short covering. That is the only thing that makes moves like this. Like, March 6th 09' on a smaller scale. And NO Shania, this is not a bottom. If you want to know what to watch....If SPX breaks 1103 on good volume, bulls will run! Geez........The simplest things are a mystery here. My opinion....bad few weeks ( weekly charts are still horendous ) rally back to 1100 then a fall to the lows.
buy US dollar
short gold
short market
treasuries
cash
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it.  I appologize for the harsh words, but some of you have been trying to bait me into an arguement for the last week. Also, 2 new clients last week!!!!

don't you make like 120K?

Shania Twain's picture
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[quote=
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 

 
short spx 940ish
short gold   890ish
 
I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correI have been correct, don't forget it. ct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 
(buy price needs to be LOWER the sell price. )

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Shania Twain wrote:[quote=
 
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 

 
short spx 940ish
short gold   890ish
 
I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correI have been correct, don't forget it. ct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. 
 
(buy price needs to be LOWER the sell price. )
 
Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Funny thing is... you know you are lying,but you have been a weel-disciplined spin machine for so long, you probably even believe your lies.

Shania Twain's picture
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Originally posted by howboutshoeshine

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Funny thing is... you know you are lying,but you have been a weel-disciplined spin machine for so long, you probably even believe your lies[

Just going by your posts.    

This, of course is the official record of this message board.

Please show us when you "bought low" or "sold high"

Before it happened.

(that is another important point.   For example, if you pick the Aints to win the super bowl it MUST be BEFORE the game is over. we have found over time that it is easier to call teh market AFTER it has happened. many people are good at this)     

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. Do you know how I know?? I've made money!!!!!! Oh ya, for every single client. conservative aggressive, doesn't matter. Keep spinning your webs, soon enough you won't be able too.

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howboutshoeshine wrote: can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. Do you know how I know?? I've made money!!!!!! Oh ya, for every single client. conservative aggressive, doesn't matter. Keep spinning your webs, soon enough you won't be able too.

Yeah your a big hitter shoe. How much did you make again? 120K Wow you are a player. Tool boy

Shania Twain's picture
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howboutshoeshine wrote: can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster.

short spx at 940.
retest
acats-a-raining
swans-a-singing
new lows

sorry.
I thought you meant market was going lower.

Shania Twain's picture
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wait   its swans-a-swimming

right?

who is
a-singing?

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: howboutshoeshine wrote: can't see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. short spx at 940. retest acats-a-raining swans-a-singing new lows sorry. I thought you meant market was going lower.
 

 
You can do it Shania!!!!!!!!!

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Shania Twain

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   Quote  Reply Posted: 04 Jan. 2010 at 9:24am

Jan 4 2010 shorts feeling PAIN. next 3 weeks gonna be fun. naz looks even better the industrials/spx

PURE GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Good monkey.

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maybe you should pull your market crash post from Nov 09, now that was a call

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Shania, I believe you have an "admirer"

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Topic: Portfolio of the year    Posted: 25 Nov. 2009 at 11:47am

Originally posted by howboutshoeshineWell, Losers. I'm done, you're too stupid for me.
10% US dollar
15% 20 year treasuries
15% corporates
15% aggregate bond index
5% short GOLD
10% TIPS
15% BIL
CASHOdd.....No mention of shorts????? Not till mid-January anyways......... Spin spin spin........
 

 
Point proven, I will not be negative to you again Shania. Truce?

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howboutshoeshine wrote: 1120 gone on spx. PLEASE cover those shortsBy Shania Twain, 24 Dec. 2009 at 11:22am

ummm. yes.    

(although did pull a bit off table when sentiment got nuts.)

I am a ragging mf bull.

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actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Moraen wrote:actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
 
I stand corrected. However, that short is up 5%. I put it on in Mid-Nov. I added to it, but I was on a vaca. from this site, so I have no proof. Believe me or not??? Up to you.

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go back on vacation.

Shania Twain's picture
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Moraen wrote: actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.

acerbic.

damn good word.

i goog'ed it

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: Moraen wrote: actually shoe, you did say "5% short gold".You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit. acerbic. damn good word. i goog'ed it
 
As did I.

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ok...shine.

Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.

Bulls need to make a stand here.

pivot   1070ish area

do not want to violate Friday's low.
today was really disappointing

just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.

judgement time

   

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Bulls will not stand up until we pass 1035 but before 1017. People are still scared. The buy has to be great to talk them out of the bond funds and into equities. Conversations like this will need to occur...

Hey Doug... Doug Doug Goose.... How's it going? Oh really..., yeah we are all hurting, well you know down was the new up haha. Anyway, you wanna know the reason I called you Dan? Well I wanted to let you know that the markets are really pulling back right now and this may be the last chance you have to get in below 10,000. I would say once the DOW cracks 10 again it will not look back. Well anyway Dean I won't take up too much time, I just wanted to let you know about the great opportunities in the Small Blend Value Caps for Intermediate Corps right now and you should really get 50,000 back to work!!! How does an investment like this sound to you Dave?
p.s. I am a Bull as well Shania and that pic is my desktop background. Can't wait until the market opens. I love down days.

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Oh shoot...  My bad Dale I had your number beside the wrong name on my note pad of people to call today. Well somebody is gonna jump at this opportunity so if you change your mind Dwain just give me a shout back buddy.

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Shania Twain wrote:ok...shine. Today was some really crappy action. Mutual fund Monday also. Bulls need to make a stand here. pivot   1070ish area do not want to violate Friday's low. today was really disappointing just like early July (July 7th wash out) bulls will make a stand here. judgement time    
 
This is quite different than July. Volume is absolutely screaming on the downside. A gap up in the morning does not help your cause.  It's meant to make you feel good and provide others with a higher selling price.  19 out of the last 22 Mondays have been up, so yesterday should not have been expected, that's why everyone covered shorts on Friday. If this thing can bust through 1103 on good volume the bulls will be back. Until then, this is all road noise. There is a 160% premium on 700 November puts and the market is starting to show it's hand. I anticipate more fall to come and a rally back to around 1100 before we head to the lows. I hope I am wrong.

howboutshoeshine's picture
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iceco1d wrote:D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  
 
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious

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This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

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NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.

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Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.I'm not calling you dumb.  I'm not calling bulls dumb.  I'm calling people who have knee-jerk reaction to news without thinking through the ramifications dumb (look at some of the articles coming out of the media about this issue).  I don't presume to know more than anyone else.  I have no way of predicting the future.  I have no idea what the markets will to do from one day to the next.  All I have is my analysis and my judgment.   Saying bears state opinions as fact is like saying bulls state opinions as fact.  It's not really a valid argument.  Everyone has an opinion on this market.  Some are more rigorous than others.  I think you fall into a trap when you become overly dogmatic.  I was bullish from Dec '08 to Nov-'09.  I am now bearish.  I will likely be bullish again after the market hits reasonable levels.  Not saying stocks don't have room to run or won't run, but I'm not going to put capital to work in equities while we're in an environment like this one.

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howboutshoeshine wrote:iceco1d wrote:D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  
 
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious
 
Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials...
 
Anybody know a guy like this?
 
Scottrade 1
 
Scottrade 2
 
Scottrade 3
 
Scottrade 4

howboutshoeshine's picture
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DeBolt wrote:howboutshoeshine wrote:iceco1d wrote:D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  
 
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious
 
Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials...
 
Anybody know a guy like this?
 
Scottrade 1
 
Scottrade 2
 
Scottrade 3
 
Scottrade 4
 
Funny comercials. Funnier posts!!

howboutshoeshine's picture
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Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
 
I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 

-on and on and on and on

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Joined: 2010-02-09

howboutshoeshine wrote: Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
 
I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 

-on and on and on and on

Thanks Rosenberg.......we will get back to you sooon......

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Shania Twain wrote: ok...shine.

Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.

Bulls need to make a stand here.

pivot   1070ish area

do not want to violate Friday's low.
today was really disappointing

just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.

judgement time

Bulls need to make a stand here.

bingo.

Sell off over.   

Friday intra-day all you bears get.

today was a perfect and important day.

(BTW: Greece bullshti means zip)

TEAR DOWN THAT WALL.

God bless global free markets.   get on BULL MONEY TRAIN

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

hhmmmmmm. Not sure how today qualified as good.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)

excuse me

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Shania Twain wrote: Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%) S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%) Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%) excuse me
 
Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October?
Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back!
 
What happened to 1071? found new support?

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

howboutshoeshine wrote:Shania Twain wrote: Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%) S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%) Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%) excuse me
 
Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October?
Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back!
 

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Short Term Effects of Smoking Crystal Meth


Learn to spot the signs of meth use...-->

The short-term effects of smoking crystal meth are varied and dangerous, making this one of the more hazardous, if not the most hazardous, street drugs to use.
 

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Crystal Meth Basics
Crystal methamphetamine is created from d-methamphetamine and is a highly addictive and dangerous drug that is injected, swallowed, smoked and sometimes snorted. Crystal meth resembles shiny crystal or glass rocks that are usually pale blue-white in color. Crystal meth is a stimulant and can make people feel elated, which makes it an attractive drug choice among many. The long-term and short-term effects of smoking crystal meth have been well documented, and one thing this drug is not is attractive. In fact, crystal meth is downright deadly.
The Short-Term Effects of Smoking Crystal Meth Are Highly Dangerous
Often something you hear about street drugs (all addictive drugs in fact) is that the long-term effects are bad for you health-wise, but if you stop soon enough you can reverse some of the health risks. Consider smoking tobacco. Quit-smoking techniques are often centered around the long-term negative health consequences, and it has actually been proven that people who quit smoking (even after years of tobacco use) reduce those health risks. This is not the case with crystal meth. Crystal meth can be deadly from the beginning, and the health risks in the long term are less likely to be reduced by quitting.
This is not to say people should not quit crystal meth if they’re already using; it's just that with this drug there's a much shorter time-frame in which good health
can return if you stop using it. Crystal meth is one of those drugs you never want to be involved with in the first place, but the sooner someone quits the better. With drug abuse, the short-term risks can be just as unhealthy as the long-term risks.

Specific Effects of Short Term Crystal Meth Use
The short-term effects of smoking crystal meth can be instantaneous. Smoking actually produces a different short-term effect than injections or snorting. When someone first smokes crystal meth, what happens is that right away the individual will feel more in focus and exhilarated because smoking meth ensures that a big dose of this toxin heads straight to the brain.
Since smoking creates an instantaneous effect, it's a huge rush for the people who use it and the feeling of exhilaration or euphoria that occurs is addictive. Other quicker, short-term effects may include a need to clean or organize, along with reduced social and or sexual inhibitions.
While feeling happy and less inhibited can possibly be looked at as positive, there are also instant physical issues occurring when crystal meth is smoked. Crystal meth goes to work immediately on the central nervous system by producing massive levels of both norepinephrine and dopamine. These are neurotransmitters in the brain that do need to function properly in order to lead a normal life. Crystal meth interferes with how they work, and plenty of research shows that abnormalities in neurotransmitters can affect both mood and behavior negatively.
The effect crystal meth has on neurotransmitters can cause:


  • Agitation
  • Paranoia
  • Unusual to completely bizarre behaviors
  • Increased heart rate and blood pressure
  • Increased body temperature

All of the above are short and long-term effects of crystal meth. Most of the time, the long-term effects of crystal meth are simply highly-exaggerated short-term effects. Another thing crystal meth can do right away is effect nutrition
. It blocks hunger and fatigue, and this means people will not eat when then should if they're constantly using crystal meth. They also run their bodies down with lack of sleep. Basically, crystal meth will push someone's body at a more rapid pace than anyone's body should ever go.

Lastly, few studies have been done on how a huge cloud of toxic crystal meth smoke may effect lung health. It's well documented that cigarettes – full of toxins themselves - are very bad for lung health. It's likely that smoking crystal meth is even worse because it's a far more toxic and potent drug.

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How Long Does the Effect of Crystal Meth Last?
The first effects noted above that hit someone after smoking crystal meth, such as the rush and euphoria, can last from two to six hours. The problem is that often users go on what's called a "speed run". This means they'll continually use, so there's a question about how long short-term effects last. Also, once a drug tolerance has built in an individual, it becomes more difficult to draw a time table. However, two to six hours is what the best research noted by Narconon relates. Narconon is a great resource for users of crystal meth. Narconon is a non-profit program that has associations with around 100 or more drug rehab programs and clinics.
Other resources for help with a crystal meth addiction include:


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getContributors('Initial Author: Jennifer ChaitRecent Contributors: JC Redmond, Kelly Roper')
Initial Author: Jennifer ChaitRecent Contributors: JC Redmond, Kelly Roper 

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