Google.. This bird is cooked

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7GOD63's picture
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What has one service and is worth more then 99% of the countries on the earth..... Can you give me a GOOOOOOGGGGGLLLEEEE! Missed earnings and may see a 100 point drop.
One has to love Wall Street who has buy, buy, buy on this company. Sounds a lot like 2000 to me.... AMAZING.

7GOD63's picture
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I meant companies..

noggin's picture
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Thanks for the indepth analysis.... I wait anxiously for your next enlightening post.

Dirk Diggler's picture
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Joined: 2005-12-30

It's a buying opportunity before the train leaves the station.

skeedaddy's picture
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Joined: 2005-06-16

Don't forget, "click fraud" can evaporate 30% off those revenue numbers. A
miss is a miss is a miss. How can analysts use a 26% tax bracket on a
company earning $1.92 billion. CFO should be fired. Everyone got it wrong.
Chart was damaged too. IMO.

Revealer's picture
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Joined: 2005-02-13

Another day or 2 and the margin clerks have more power than the anal-ists.

Indyone's picture
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I'm with the original poster...I've thought for awhile that GOOG smelled like 1999-2000 all over again.  P/E in the stratosphere, etc.  Sure, there are earnings, but any miss with those valuations, and we see the kind of reaction we've seen yesterday and today.
and of course, the analysts are hard at it defending their price targets...

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

Are you guys kidding me?  I don't own google, but it was down to 375 in after hours, and if I had the cahonas I would of picked some up in my IRA...I knew there would be folks buying it back...it opened at 389 today and is sitting around 395.  But then I would have dumped it.
 
Volitility can be a good thing, if you are on the right side of it

7GOD63's picture
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For an IRA????? At 130 billion I dont see it as a steady blue chip or long term investment.
Noggin sometimes I write with a little bit of shazam. Hope you dont mind.
Skee what is IMO? Amazing that the company had the wrong tax bracket. WOW, that really makes you question a potential earning correction over the next year or two. Just like the good old times in 2000.

skeedaddy's picture
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Joined: 2005-06-16

In My Opinion....but you really should focus on your studying shouldn't you?

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

All I can say is "BOOOYAHHH, Jim"

 

skeedaddy's picture
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Joined: 2005-06-16

Yeah, he'd better put a post-it on his forehead tonight, for sure.

troll's picture
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7GOD63 wrote:
One has to love Wall Street who has buy, buy, buy on this company. Sounds a lot like 2000 to me.... AMAZING.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=GOOG
Here's the info on the ratings on Google. I'm not sure it's fair to say "Wall Street" has a "buy, buy, buy" on it. Check it for yourself.

skeedaddy's picture
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Joined: 2005-06-16

Listen, I'll be the first to admit I goofed last year passing up on GOOG.
Instead I held YHOO. But I'm over it. I still won't take a chance with that
click fraud overhang.

In fair disclosure, I do own a mutual fund with GOOG as the biggest
position.

7GOD63's picture
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Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Noto told clients to buy the stock at $380 to ride the run-up to $500, his 12-month price target. He said that he's still predicting 20% to 25% earnings growth from 2007 to 2010.
The quarter was "not as bad as you think," according to a Jefferies & Co. report. "Buy on the pullback," the analyst suggested.
Prudential's Mark Rowen also suggested using the weakness as an opportunity to buy the stock, and went as far as raising his price target to $500 from $400.
Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck kept his rating at outperform and his price target at $550. He called the sell-off in the stock an "overreaction," and recommended buying on the pullback.

exEJIR's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-12

If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!
Sound familiar to some of us????     

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

exEJIR wrote:
If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!
Sound familiar to some of us????     

Bought it between 35-40, took losses between 18-20 and got almost everyone out.  It was a series of many painful conversations, but turned out to be a great move to take our lumps and move on.  That's when I really started to believe in technical analysis.

troll's picture
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joedabrkr wrote:exEJIR wrote:
If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!
Sound familiar to some of us????     

Bought it between 35-40, took losses between 18-20 and got almost everyone out.  It was a series of many painful conversations, but turned out to be a great move to take our lumps and move on.  That's when I really started to believe in technical analysis.

See how people take away different lessons? I didn't get caught up in LU because the fundamentals were lacking. Now, if I could ever find a TA guy who could answer a question in a straight forward manner AND used ink instead of pencil to make those all important lines on the chart , who knows, I could be converted.  <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

troll's picture
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mikebutler222 wrote:joedabrkr wrote:exEJIR wrote:
If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!
Sound familiar to some of us????     

Bought it between 35-40, took losses between 18-20 and got almost everyone out.  It was a series of many painful conversations, but turned out to be a great move to take our lumps and move on.  That's when I really started to believe in technical analysis.

See how people take away different lessons? I didn't get caught up in LU because the fundamentals were lacking. Now, if I could ever find a TA guy who could answer a question in a straight forward manner AND used ink instead of pencil to make those all important lines on the chart , who knows, I could be converted.  <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

I understand what you mean mike.  I used to feel the same way.  It's as much an art as a science.  You must adapt as the chart changes.....that's why we still use pencils. ;-)

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

7GOD63 wrote:
For an IRA????? At 130 billion I dont see it as a steady blue chip or long term investment.
Noggin sometimes I write with a little bit of shazam. Hope you dont mind.
Skee what is IMO? Amazing that the company had the wrong tax bracket. WOW, that really makes you question a potential earning correction over the next year or two. Just like the good old times in 2000.

 
Hey dipsh*t,
If you are going to buy and sell stocks over short periods of time (aka under 13 months) it is BETTER to do it in an IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAPITAL GAINS.  Even better in a Roth if your income is within range.
Newbies.

dude's picture
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BankFC wrote:7GOD63 wrote:
For an IRA????? At 130 billion I dont see it as a steady blue chip or long term investment.
Noggin sometimes I write with a little bit of shazam. Hope you dont mind.
Skee what is IMO? Amazing that the company had the wrong tax bracket. WOW, that really makes you question a potential earning correction over the next year or two. Just like the good old times in 2000.

 
Hey dipsh*t,
If you are going to buy and sell stocks over short periods of time (aka under 13 months) it is BETTER to do it in an IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAPITAL GAINS.  Even better in a Roth if your income is within range.
Newbies.

Harsh words BankFC.

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

Yeah...maybe I should've worded it a little nicer...I do apologize.
Long day my friends.

dude's picture
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Joined: 2005-11-15

I know the feeling.  Just took me by suprise, you're normally a little more diplomatic.  Hope tommorrow's a better day for you.

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

I appreciate it.
 

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

BankFC wrote:
Yeah...maybe I should've worded it a little nicer...I do apologize.
Long day my friends.

By the way smartarse LONG TERM is 12 months and 1 day if your going to go and take potshots at people at least get your facts right......

7GOD63's picture
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Joined: 2006-01-29

Thanks for the guidance. I have a long way to go... So many little tricks of the trade... For sure one learing this stuff can really help them selves in the long term...

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

Joe,
Take a pill man.  I had a cocktail last night and it was all better  , plus I did apologize to the kid...
I actually meant to put a 12 there, you know, the button beside the 3...but regardless, it doesn't matter anyway.  I got my point across.
 

BankFC's picture
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7god63,
I appreciate your attitude.  I had to learn the hard way right out of college, and I have very little patience for new guys that don't take the time to learn basic concepts.  I have a feeling you might not be one of those guys.  I hope anyway. 

7GOD63's picture
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Do most people here mess around with their retirement account to avoid capital gains? AMZN following the trend of google... 

7GOD63's picture
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Joined: 2006-01-29

Yeah I am a young pup in this industry. About to take the 7,66 and what ever else. I have been around the block so I know what it's like to deal with a rookie. Hey so you did well although you started after college? I say this since many hammer the super rookies or new college grads.

BankFC's picture
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I do all my individual stock trading in my IRA.  I have a 401K, and it's in MFs of course.  In my taxable account I have a few MF (bought at NAV of course ), some IShares, and I also on a non-publicly traded REIT.

7GOD63's picture
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Also I understand the 12 month rule with capital gains, but I just though as the IRA as a safety net.. Do not mess with it type stuff. I talk to a lot of union guys who have been changing portfolio daily. To me that is risky to try to time the market. If and when there is a down turn they may think tomorrow will be a better day (like a gambler) and get wacked day after day.

babbling looney's picture
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I do my personal individual stock trading in my taxable account and have MFs and Reits in my IRA/Simple IRA.   I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains. Tax wise it works for me since my husband and I are both self employed and are always having to work the angles.
Everyone is different.  No hard and fast rule.

BankFC's picture
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I actually started WHILE IN college, as an intern.  Been studying this business since then (important, I spent much more time learning the "business" than studying the market, understand?).
It's been an uphill battle (the age thing), but for the most part, I have gotten past it.  When you are younger than EVERYONE you sell to, you must:
1.  Own it, don't hide it.  Don't display it on your forehead, but if asked, be honest and move on.  You can use this to your advantage...I have a 2 minute story I tell (if needed) that takes the entire issue off the table. 
2.  Know as much as you can.  Devour information.  Be articulate.  The only reason age is an issue is because people equate age with inexperience.  The only reason inexperience is an issue is because that equates with lack of knowledge, which in turn means NO VALUE.
So, in a confident manner, show folks your ability.  For example, I explain, in a very easy to understand way, the concepts of beta and alpha, and how they relate to evaluating a portfolio.  These are easy concepts to learn, and they come off as impressive to most clients.  That's one example.
3.  Look the part.  Lean always towards conservative.  Shave.  Buy decent shoes, a nice belt (one that wasn't bought at American Eagle), keep your hair cut, etc.  You don't need expensive suits, I don't care what anybody on here says.  Any decent tailored or well fitting suit will be fine. 
4.  Do about 1/4 of the talking.  It's harder to say something stupid when you aren't talking.  Stay away from subjects you are uneducated on. 
Those are some of the things that have helped me.  My free gift of the day.   
 

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

Babbling,
What do you mean "I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains."
I understand what your saying, but my point was if I am trading stocks held less than 12 months, I am doing it inside my IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAP GAINS, which, as you know, is not 15%, but is taxed as ordinary income.
If you are holding stocks longer than 12 months, that's fine.  15% tax isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I am quite a bit younger than you, and I am buying and selling concentrated positions in the short term (aka speculating, and doing darn well I might add), and I'd rather not pay any taxes on it, let alone ordinary income.
So your point, while not untrue, is a little inaccurate in reference to the point being made.

7GOD63's picture
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Nice feedback. For sure that is great advice for anyone in the industry.

skeedaddy2's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-14

BankFC wrote:I do all my individual stock trading in my IRA.
I used to do the same thing, but not anymore. I tell clients to hold stocks in a taxable account and bonds and bond funds in a retirement accounts, because stocks produce capital gains and dividends, which are taxed at a much lower rate than the interest paid on bonds.
When stocks are in a retirement account, and the money is withdrawn, it’s taxed as regular income, as if it had been earned on the job. As a result, you are giving away an important tax break.
Stocks have a much lower after-tax return inside a retirement account than they do outside, with no reduction in risk. If stocks are held outside the retirement account, Uncle sam, in effect, shares the risk by allowing a tax deduction for any losses.
I'm no CFP or CPA, but this is why I get paid the big bucks.  Asset location is as important as asset allocation.

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

Good point, but only applicable if you are referring to a traditional IRA, not a Roth, which is the BEST place to trade individual stocks.

skeedaddy2's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-14

Good point, my clients don't qualify for a Roth. Thanks.

BankFC's picture
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Skee, don't get touchy just because I pointed out a fact.
LOL, I'm sure EVERY client you have is ineligible to contribute to a Roth, and you are a multi-million dollar producer. 
There, feel better?

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

BankFC wrote:
I actually started WHILE IN college, as an intern.  Been studying this business since then (important, I spent much more time learning the "business" than studying the market, understand?).
It's been an uphill battle (the age thing), but for the most part, I have gotten past it.  When you are younger than EVERYONE you sell to, you must:
1.  Own it, don't hide it.  Don't display it on your forehead, but if asked, be honest and move on.  You can use this to your advantage...I have a 2 minute story I tell (if needed) that takes the entire issue off the table. 
2.  Know as much as you can.  Devour information.  Be articulate.  The only reason age is an issue is because people equate age with inexperience.  The only reason inexperience is an issue is because that equates with lack of knowledge, which in turn means NO VALUE.
So, in a confident manner, show folks your ability.  For example, I explain, in a very easy to understand way, the concepts of beta and alpha, and how they relate to evaluating a portfolio.  These are easy concepts to learn, and they come off as impressive to most clients.  That's one example.
3.  Look the part.  Lean always towards conservative.  Shave.  Buy decent shoes, a nice belt (one that wasn't bought at American Eagle), keep your hair cut, etc.  You don't need expensive suits, I don't care what anybody on here says.  Any decent tailored or well fitting suit will be fine. 
4.  Do about 1/4 of the talking.  It's harder to say something stupid when you aren't talking.  Stay away from subjects you are uneducated on. 
Those are some of the things that have helped me.  My free gift of the day.   
 

I've been working to brush up my image, so I shave every week whether I need it or not. ;-)

BankFC's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-27

Now if you could just incorporate that showering routine in, you'd be good to go!!
 

skeedaddy's picture
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BankFC wrote: Skee, don't get touchy just because I pointed out a fact.

LOL, I'm sure EVERY client you have is ineligible to contribute to a Roth,
and you are a multi-million dollar producer. 
There, feel better?

Pretty typical reaction from a rookie FC at a bank...after he learns the proper
way to handle OPM!

babbling looney's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-02

BankFC wrote:
Babbling,
What do you mean "I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains."
I understand what your saying, but my point was if I am trading stocks held less than 12 months, I am doing it inside my IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAP GAINS, which, as you know, is not 15%, but is taxed as ordinary income.
If you are holding stocks longer than 12 months, that's fine.  15% tax isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I am quite a bit younger than you, and I am buying and selling concentrated positions in the short term (aka speculating, and doing darn well I might add), and I'd rather not pay any taxes on it, let alone ordinary income.
So your point, while not untrue, is a little inaccurate in reference to the point being made.

Sorry I didn't realize you were talking exclusively about short term capital gains.
As you pointed out, you do mostly short term position movements in your IRA and are speculating. Being older and not as active a trader in my account, I tend to hold a stock for at least a year or longer unless it is a loser then I sell before 1 year.  By the 15% I mean that if I sell a stock with LTCG I can have it taxed at 15% instead of ordinary income rates which is ultimately the result in an IRA.  You lose that tax advantage of the lower cap gains rate.  Whether that low rate will continue is a question but for now I use that strategy.
If the stock is a loser outside of the IRA I can offset some cap gains from one of my our side line businesses/hobbies (buying, refurbishing and selling hot rods and classic cars). Take a lemon and make lemonade .  Or we can do wash  sales and take some tax breaks.  Naturally we don't want any loser stocks, but if it happens we can control the consequences.
Like I said. Everyone has different needs.

BankFC's picture
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skeedaddy wrote: BankFC wrote:
Skee, don't get touchy just because I pointed out a fact.
LOL, I'm sure EVERY client you have is ineligible to contribute to a Roth, and you are a multi-million dollar producer. 
There, feel better?
Pretty typical reaction from a rookie FC at a bank...after he learns the proper way to handle OPM!
 
Actually, you were the one who needed to pump up his little ego with the above comment about your clients.  I am hardly a rookie, but I have a feeling you might be...

Dirk Diggler's picture
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babbling looney wrote:BankFC wrote:
Babbling,
What do you mean "I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains."
I understand what your saying, but my point was if I am trading stocks held less than 12 months, I am doing it inside my IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAP GAINS, which, as you know, is not 15%, but is taxed as ordinary income.
If you are holding stocks longer than 12 months, that's fine.  15% tax isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I am quite a bit younger than you, and I am buying and selling concentrated positions in the short term (aka speculating, and doing darn well I might add), and I'd rather not pay any taxes on it, let alone ordinary income.
So your point, while not untrue, is a little inaccurate in reference to the point being made.

Sorry I didn't realize you were talking exclusively about short term capital gains.
As you pointed out, you do mostly short term position movements in your IRA and are speculating. Being older and not as active a trader in my account, I tend to hold a stock for at least a year or longer unless it is a loser then I sell before 1 year.  By the 15% I mean that if I sell a stock with LTCG I can have it taxed at 15% instead of ordinary income rates which is ultimately the result in an IRA.  You lose that tax advantage of the lower cap gains rate.  Whether that low rate will continue is a question but for now I use that strategy.
If the stock is a loser outside of the IRA I can offset some cap gains from one of my our side line businesses/hobbies (buying, refurbishing and selling hot rods and classic cars). Take a lemon and make lemonade .  Or we can do wash  sales and take some tax breaks.  Naturally we don't want any loser stocks, but if it happens we can control the consequences.
Like I said. Everyone has different needs.

Little woman,
Do you understand the concepts of tax deferral and compounding? You don't give real live people advice, do you?

Philo Kvetch's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-17

Dirk, I think it is painfully clear from other threads that BL (among others) cannot grasp the essential arithmetic necessary to understand the magnitude of compounding.
No wonder the regulators and the public at large don't get it...people in the money business are unable to get their heads around the concept.

babbling looney's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-02

You guys are idiots. You seem to think that annuties are the answer to everything.
If you have a real business, not just one that survives by selling annuities to everyone, but one that generates income from other sources and that includes, captial gains, you need to use all the tax tricks you can. That includes offsetting cap gains with loses, if you can.  You can't do that in an IRA which is what my post was about. An annuity isn't going to help with current income taxes. 
Sure, you can invest in a qualifed retirement plan but if you need more relief then you use other strategies.   A few years a go we sold a business and the building for  a big gain.  You better believe we used every strategy we could. We did a 1031 exchange. Tell me how an annuity or an IRA would have been a better move.....other than for you as the agent.  What would have been your recommendation to avoid paying taxes through the nose if I were your client?
Morons

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

You are very classy dirk. Very classy indeed. Your the type of guy that pops the top of the Beercan for your lady, true class. Your the kind of guy that eats the burnt bratwurst and gives the undercooked one to yer lady at the Bar Be Que at your brother-in-laws house over on Cermak on Pulaski Day. Your idea of a compliment to yer lady is..."Honey thats great that you don't sweat much for a fat girl."

Dirk Diggler's picture
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Joined: 2005-12-30

SonnyClips wrote:You are very classy dirk. Very classy indeed. Your the type of guy that pops the top of the Beercan for your lady, true class. Your the kind of guy that eats the burnt bratwurst and gives the undercooked one to yer lady at the Bar Be Que at your brother-in-laws house over on Cermak on Pulaski Day. Your idea of a compliment to yer lady is..."Honey thats great that you don't sweat much for a fat girl."
Sweet home, Chicago.

babbling looney's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-02

Nice.  Its obvious that you aren't giving advice to real life people.

It seems all you do is sell annuities. You already stated you don't want to
bother with stocks and bonds and it is too much trouble to continually
monitor client's accounts. It is all about the money you can make and to
hell with actually giving the client some real advice.

Your feeble attempts to offend my "delicate sensibilites" are pathetic. 

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