Thoughts on Rescue Plan

69 replies [Last post]
snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

What do you guys think about the current rescue plan being put forth for a vote tomorrow?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/text-economic-rescue-bill-official/story.aspx?guid=%7B6945E610%2D2654%2D4C44%2D87ED%2D3DA763EE0200%7D

We'll see if the house republicans even vote for this...I don't think a lot of them will
 
Also, if this is done in installments, get ready to hear about this over a period of time.  It seems to me it would be much better for it to be a huge number upfront and keep it out of the public's eye.
 
But now, with the President needing to approve the next $100 bil and congress needing to approve the next $350 bil, we will surely see this in the media longer than we would like.
 
We'll see if it passes.  Screw the Congress, the Senate and the House Republicans, they are all idiots.

Sportsfreakbob's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-08-24

I think it might have been said on the forum already, but it seems to me that the huge money being spent to help the banks could be better spent buying up an awful lot of homes with distressed mortgages, or refinancing those mortgages with more favorable terms.Snags you hit it on the head about Congress, they are all douche bag beaurocrats, including the two candidates.But i guess what they passed is better than nothing, at least as far as the markets go.The reality is though, it seems to me with what the next few years are going to look like, the equity markets are going to go nowhere fast anyway. (at least the U.S. markets)

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

Is anyone else getting ready to watch this vote on this bill?
 
I don't even want to think what the markets would do if they actually voted this thing down.
 
This is really a circus.

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

What the hell are they doing?  I just heard Nancy Pelosi blaming people, blah blah blah blah.....market goes down further.  

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

gvf wrote:What the hell are they doing?  I just heard Nancy Pelosi blaming people, blah blah blah blah.....market goes down further.  
 
Being politicians.  What a messed up system.  She's trying to make the final push to pass this thing, but not before she rips into the Republicans again.  Real smart.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

If the politicans would only decide to govern rather than play politics. Frankly , both Democrats and Republican Administration/s can both accept responsibilty. Who cares about the finger pointing....govern or have they forgotten their original concept?
To the discussions we have the Subprime situation and now the Financial Institution situation and the fall out continues. Stop with the politics and sound bites. I will say regardless of who wins....the new administration are going to be up to their necks with this problem.

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

You have to be kidding me....they need 218ish to pass it.  Yea: 115Nay: 97NV: 219time left: 11 minutes.....

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

gvf wrote: You have to be kidding me....they need 218ish to pass it.  Yea: 108Nay: 74NV: 252time left: 11 minutes.....
 
It's pretty much 2 - 1 democrats in favor and 1 - 2 republicans in favor.
 
The republicans are killing their own party's plan.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

Snags & GVF...these fing idoits have got to be kidding? If they fail to aprove then let's see what will happen.

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

The markets will get killed today if this fails.  There are 100 votes left, they need half of them, and the Nays are leading right now.
 
Holy shit.

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

surreal

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

It's done.  Dow down almost 500.  Holy F*ck, this is really bad.

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

600

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

f****** b******t.  down 6.5% now

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

I'm going to have clients screaming bloody murder over this one. going to be a verry long day/week.

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

cue the phone calls

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

Snags ...just did some additional checks on who is admitting exposure to Washington Mutual....Insurance Company - AEGON (Netherlands ) admits in press release 29/Sept/08.
Total general account fixed exposure of EUR 125 million.
What is bothersome is the three trillion number ( subprime ) and the institutions that have bought the paper. No pun intended but this could be some Paper Trail? If you even are buying the three trillion figure that started the problem.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

TSE down 666.37 or -5.50. Out for a cigarette and coffee.

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

jeez here we go again "to suspend the rules and pass".

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

WHAT THE F*CK ARE THE POLITICIANS DOING WITH OUR ECONOMY?  OUR CLIENTS' RETIREMENTS?  BOTH SIDES COMPLETELY BOTCHED THIS AND DESERVE TO BE SHOT.  THIS IS ABSURD.

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

Latest report is that it is the republicans who botched it. The voted against by about a 2 to 1 margin after their leadership said they had the votes. Stay tuned for all the finger pointing.

It ain't over yet folks, maybe another vote on Thurday.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

And who would like to be running now for U.S. President and Canadian Prime Minister
Bond guy , had to make that quip. Despite the game of politics this is serious .

babbling looney's picture
Offline
Joined: 2004-12-02

gvf wrote:cue the phone calls
 
So, what are you guys going to say to your clients??? Seriously.  This is really bad and I haven't a clue on where to put money.  MMKT.  yeah. lets lock in those losses.  Blue chips. Foreign stocks. Stay put.  Hold on the frying pan isn't as hot as the fire????
 
What?  I'm at a loss. This is the worst I have ever seen.

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

This is an unprecedented scenario right now and as such serves to be truly difficult for all of us to prevent the "but you told me..." conversations which are inevitable from our clients.
 
I have to just trust my instincts and my market analysts to make the best decision based on time horizon. As someone posted on another thread, we have had many difficult "unprecedented" recessions that we all made it through.
 
What becomes difficult is paying our bills while managing our clients' nerves.

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

babbling looney wrote:gvf wrote:cue the phone calls
 
So, what are you guys going to say to your clients??? Seriously.  This is really bad and I haven't a clue on where to put money.  MMKT.  yeah. lets lock in those losses.  Blue chips. Foreign stocks. Stay put.  Hold on the frying pan isn't as hot as the fire????
 
What?  I'm at a loss. This is the worst I have ever seen.
 
This is where I'm stuck at.  For the ones invested, I think we just have to stay invested.  Bonds are just as bad right now.
 
International is getting killed a lot worse than the U.S.
 
Cash is king right now, be happy to be in it.
 
I don't know what to tell clients either.  I mean, sorry, go tell your stupid congressman.  We have double digit losses for the month, and statements go out on tomorrow's values. 
 
I don't know what else to tell people. 
 
I can't see how anyone trusts us anymore.  "It's ok Mr. Client, let's stay the course, things will turn around...I mean we're at 13,000 on the Dow, we'll bounce back no problem...we're diversified".
 
"Hey asshole advisor, we're at 10,500 on the Dow now...thanks for the advice you ass".
 
"It's ok, the bottom has to be close...stand pat...don't sell".
 
What a crock.

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

Barney Frank just said: Those republicans (Think it was about 15 of them) who let their emotions override the vote for America is the very number of votes needed to reverse the bill.  You could hear the gasps from the reporters at that kind of quip.  This thing is fracked, but Babbs, we're telling our clients to hold on.  These are the worst times to get whipsawed by the market.  Unfortunately, for the conservative clients who have preferreds (let's not argue this now), bonds, or muni bonds, it's much harder to have that conversation.  Frack me: down 8%

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

Likewise Babs. Have alway had a conservative approach and am doing some soul searchng as how to approach this one. Money Market , lock in the losses not a realistic option. Blue Chips still the way to go and that being said some buying opportunities. Foreign Stocks , again only  quality.
Have been working with clients for awhile on the situation and options. I just need to focus on the basics of Conservative Investing and have them review our original plan/s. My only concern ( or rather major concern ) is what we collectively define as Conservative and Blue Chip.

babbling looney's picture
Offline
Joined: 2004-12-02

One bright spot.  Or an insane moment.  
 
Just had a client want to buy an etf that specializes in financials and a few of shares of brk.b. 
 
Hold on is all I can tell most clients.  Some are at a point where they have erased all gains over the last 5 years.  Cash is looking good right now for those.  But they are a minority. 
 
Bond holders and preferred stock holders.  Hang in there and hope your income continues until things stabilize.  Actually some bond holders are still above par, but many are going to be looking at sub par portfolios for some time to come.  Just hope the income stream continues.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

I know the client/s don't want to hear it ( I don't want to hear it ) but stay the course. Other than Money Market / Cash where are they going to go in the short term other than look at some Blue Chip buying opportunities? Tonight will have do consider the plan sipping on a couple of Bushmills.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

Hey Babs....remember the Sin Stocks ....Booze , Cigarettes and Gaming. After today I can guarantee that at least the first two will be in heavy use. I know Gaming is off a bit but hey always another day.

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

Snag's post reflects how I feel.
 
Anyone having to tell a client or two to hold off that retirement for a few years? Geez.

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

Guys ...just a thought. Have been through some  in the past. This is where you really are going to earn your money and provide some sound ideas and plans to your clients. Seriously!!

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

Tomorrow i'm buying munis, just like today.
 
Yeah like a broken record. Ok, fair enough butttttttt, here's the deal. I'm buying munis or other high quality bonds today at a discount. Sometimes a substancial discount. Worst case, over the next year or two the economy with the markets in tow does its endo. Boohoo! Then it comes roaring back, just like every other time its done the same thing.  In the meantime the bonds i bought for income don't miss a beat. Then as the economy comes back, so do they. Much of the income received on those bonds will be DCA'd back into the market. Win-Win.
 
reading this forum i feel like I'm back in 1987 and everyone on the other side of the glass that seperates my office from the rest of the office is frozen. Yet on my side of the glass business is getting done. Accounts are getting opened, advice is being given.
 
I don't know what the future holds, only that there will be one. I'm going to assume that this nasty event is going to end no differently than every other nasty event in our financial history. That is: with the market climbing to new highs. It may take the rest of my life for that to happen, but it will happen. In the meantime i'll quietly take accounts from the frozen and the panicked.
 
All that money you get every month or every quarter in your paycheck? Now it's time to earn it. Come up with a strategy that goes beyond being a victim of the markets. Don't be a deer in the headlights.  Be proactive. Be a leader.

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

norway401 wrote:Guys ...just a thought. Have been through some  in the past. This is where you really are going to earn your money and provide some sound ideas and plans to your clients. Seriously!!
 
I know you have loonies and toonies and other weird stuff up there like mounties, but you don't need to censor yourself here.  In fact, we'd all appreciate some crude language around here given the fact that we really are in a shit storm.  :) 

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

BondGuy wrote:That is: with the market climbing to new highs. It may take the rest of my life for that to happen, but it will happen.
 
I'd be a lot happier if you were 95 years old, but given the fact that you're in your mid-50's (I believe, from what you've posted before), that's not too comforting.
 
What kinds of muni's are you finding?  Are you sticking to AAA insured, or what?  What are the coupons, YTM? 
 

norway401's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-10-16

Bond Guy.....correct some serious shit happening. My point is I have been through a couple of market corrections or situations and survivied. Was it fun ...NO!!! But my clients and I survived. I could curse my brains out at the politicans , the banks , the regulators but I still need to come in tomorrow and do what my clients pay me to do. Challenges you bet.

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

The House will be out until Thursday.  The markets are on their own until then.  I hate to say this, but if Cramer is right, and the Dow goes to 8500, we're down another 20% pretty quick.  Thank you House and Senate.

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

By GOs and things like Turnpike bonds. For example i'm buying PA turnpikes. I'm also a buyer of school district bonds. Stay away with anything with warts. Whatsawart? IDAs, weak hospitals, real estate  or any insured bond trading at a AAA level. There is no such thing these days. I've seen some interesting escrowed bonds.
As for the coupon levels, ah , talk to me in the morning. They are changing by the minute.

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-20

The market gets killed regardless of the plan going through or not.   Its a failed market model.  Time to reconsider career choices

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

fastcar wrote:The market gets killed regardless of the plan going through or not.   Its a failed market model.  Time to reconsider career choicesI hear there will be a few openings in Congress this year. 

snaggletooth's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-13

Steve Forbes says, "This bill was the best option we had".  When asked why it failed, he said, "It failed because the constiuents were so overwhelmingly against it".
 
So let me get this right:  Many top economic advisors and financial guru's (Buffett among others), thought Paulson's plan was the best option we had and should've been passed.
 
But the retards in Congress and Senate would only listen to their retard constiuents, thereby allowing the blind to lead the blind.
 
If half of Congress couldn't understand the plan, most of "Main Street" definitely won't understand the plan.  What a bunch of idiots all the way around. 

gvf's picture
gvf
Offline
Joined: 2008-07-01

The Senate had said they more than had the support for it, I assume they would've kicked it through.  Which leads me to the following conclusion: we need smaller class sizes.  430 something congressmen is simply too many people to educate at one time.Hopefully we'll see a bigger/better advertisement campaign of the program over the next few days.  Something with Bill Gates and Seinfeld would be nice. 

ednomore's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-08-29

I don't think congressional members give a damn what their constituents think, they only care about making the correct headlines to impress certain classes  of voters. This was evidenced today in the most obvious way possible. The speaker of the house could not resist making partisan comments when party affiliations should not be a part of the problem that the nation and the world faces. We have two presidential candidates who don't care about anything except getting elected, so all they want to do is criticize each other. I think it is time that the congress get off their ass and do what we pay them to do and that is immediately address the problems of the country without trying to impress certain voter classes. Do what is right for the majority without regard for the party.

eggward's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-08-06

If Congress will merely follow the will of the people, lets get rid of them and simply do a poll via the Internet whenever any issues come up.  That would at least save having to pay those boughtnpaidforpoloiticians salary, health care, etc.!   They should show some leadership and make a tough decision that is in the best interest of their constituents....even if their constituents are too uneducated to know what they need.
I'll get off my soap box now......

anonymous's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-09-29

Snags, take the advice that Bondguy gave on another thread where he said that our clients should watch Jeopardy instead of CNBC.  However, it is you who needs to be taking this advice.
 
Am I the only one who promises his clients that there will be times that not only that they lose money, but these losses may be significant?  I've spoken to all of my clients and we haven't made a single portfolio change (in terms of asset allocation) as a result of what has been happening.  The only change that anyone has made is to put some mutual fund money into VA's.
 
The clients who are far from retirement understand that bad markets are good for their accumulation of wealth.  The ones who are in retirement have enough safe stuff that it doesn't matter very much and those in between understand that to a large degree much of what is happening is out of our control and their future goals may or may not come to fruition. 
 
Nothing is different.  What I mean by that is, like always, we know about yesterday, but we know nothing about tomorrow.  Since this is what we know and this is always what we know, shouldn't we be invested in the same manner as always...in accordance with one's tolerance for risk and their time horizon?

lady_trader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-05-12

There was an email sent out at about 10 am from our regulating body asking us to vote for the bailout, so I went on congress.org. You vote with your name, address and you receive an automated email back from your Congressperson in your state. There was nearly 102,000 people who sent a message their Congresspeople to pass or not pass the bill. At the time I looked 91% of people were AGAINST the bailout with 8% for the bailout.
This bill can not be passed in Congress. The public doesn't want it and therefore, someone running for election in November is not going to endorse it. If they vote for the bailout; they are out of a job.
 
It just was not sold to the American public and if we want to get something done, we need to look outside of Congress.
 

anonymous's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-09-29

This bill can not be passed in Congress. The public doesn't want it and therefore, someone running for election in November is not going to endorse it. If they vote for the bailout; they are out of a job.
 
The public has a very short memory.  Most will get re-elected no matter what happens.  If one votes for a bailout and it does not negatively impact one's personal situation between now and the election, the bailout vote will have virtually no election impact.
 

theironhorse's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-03-03

the all knowing public did not want the bill passed because they have been told over and over it is a bail out of Wall Street!  Nobody, and I mean nobody, has even attempted to sell this bill to the "common man."  They have no idea how this economy will affect them long term.  If mom/pop and 2 kids knew EXACTLY what the financial landscape would look like in 2 years without this bailout, which nobody has explained to them, they might view things diiferently.  Right now, all they know is very very rich people are being bailed out.  There is so much negativity towards Wall Street and corporate cronies that John Q public refuses to willingly bend over and take it for someone else.  They don't see the repurcussions, on a personal level, cause nobody has adequately explained it to them. 

theironhorse's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-03-03

And yesterday's press confeence was a complete fucking joke.  Pelosi standing there saying "This HAS to be a bi-partisan bill!"  Nobody bothers to ask WHY!?!?!  And the answer is because neither party wants to be the party who made the decision, for which they may be held accountable. How many Republican votes are necessary for this bill to pass?  If EITHER party wanted to take some initiative and possibly be the savior, they could take the bull by the horns and run, but they won't.  If this is SO important, the Dems could pass it and take ALL the credit.  If the GOP wanted they could all vote yes, let the Dems essentially block it via no vote, and say, "hey, we voted for it and they didn't...it is heir fault the economy is not recoering."Right now it is a clusterfuck.  Nobody wants to do anything without being certain their ass is covered POLITICALLY.

anabuhabkuss's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-02

The Iron Horse,
I may be optimistic here, but I do not think the public is questioning what the ramifications are to them. I understand it, don't buy it and still think this bailout is a disaster rushing to happen.
 
This is a half empty/half full glass scenario, imo. Either way the common taxpayer is screwed. But why give power to the government, the very entity that pushes for a 'healthy' housing market, when they themselves failed to regulate the housing crisis that was going on right underneath their nose for the past decade at the very least? The weight of the consequences of the last decade should fall on the shoulders of these institutions and not the people despite the fact that either way, the common american is screwed. 
 
these ****ing institutes deserve to go bankrupt so they can get picked up by someone else who can get the job done. If I run a restaurant and I'm killing it with great business, why should I be concerned and have to pay for another restaurant's failure?
 
the only person that wins is a government that buys illiquid loans for the cheap and profits from them later. Maybe I'm just not getting it. Anyone want to tell me where I'm going wrong?

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

With all due respect to Yeats I for one have not seen an effort to 'Sell" this plan to Main Street. Nor have I seen an effort to inform the public at large. The internet forums are filled with diatribe from the uninformed  who do not want the fat cats bailed out. Scanning these forums of well meaning, but uniformed people there is no talk of locked up credit markets, or Main Street consequences if a bail out is not passed. The knowledge of what that future holds lays outside the "you don't know that you don't know" realm of thought and inside "what you don't know can hurt you." And unfortunately, unlike the Southern Citys that warn unwary visitors to their city parks that Alligators will bite noone is warning Main Street that a big alligator is waiting for them.
 
I think it was Mark Twain who said "What we've got here is failure to communicate." Ok, it was spoken by "The Captain " played by Strother Martin in Coll hand Luke. I'm still giving to Mark Twain because it perfectly describes what's happening and Twain carries more weight. 
 
With due respect for those who will turn a deaf ear to yet another sales pitch, this is a message the masses need to hear and need to hear.  Congress needs to get the messege to the people. To let them know what lies in wait just up the road.
 
 Yesterday's debacle in Washington brings me to another quote:
 
Be thankfull we're not getting all the government we're paying for. - Will Rogers
 
 

Please or Register to post comments.

Industry Newsletters
Careers Category Sponsor Links

Sponsored Introduction Continue on to (or wait seconds) ×