Place your bets!

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Ashland's picture
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Joined: 2007-03-07

How low can it go?

doberman's picture
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The real important question is, "What kind of expectations did you give your client, when they first invested with you?". That will determine how long before your client bolts for someone else promising "the moon".
 

snaggletooth's picture
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doberman wrote:
The real important question is, "What kind of expectations did you give your client, when they first invested with you?". That will determine how long before your client bolts for someone else promising "the moon".
 

A week and half ago I told all my clients, "With this market, I absolutely gaurantee we're doubling the accounts in a year and all of us will be buying bigger houses and cooler cars.  Hell, if you have money earmarked for a home purchase, let's just put it in the market.  No downside at all.  I'm telling you Mr. Client, we're going straight to 18,000 on the Dow!!!!"
 
 
I'm just kidding by the way.

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

Ashland wrote:How low can it go?
No lower than zero.

doberman's picture
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snaggletooth wrote:
  Hell, if you have money earmarked for a home purchase, let's just put it in the market.  No downside at all. 

If the market only drops 30%, but home prices drop 50%; they've still got it made in the shade!... You're right, no downside!

PinBroker's picture
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Joined: 2007-06-17

For me the hardest part of this job is managing expectations.  For the last 4 years clients have seen the market go straight up  and we can preach to them all we want about  tempering their expectations  but they still think 20%  and positive returns every month on their statements are god given......right up there with "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."
Two weeks from now, when clients get their statements it will be soooooo much fun.
Pinn

jackbauer's picture
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Joined: 2007-08-17

expectations and management.  I moved some to cash when the dow hit 14k, i would have moved more.. hindsight 20/20.  looking at moving averages from Sept 06- feb -07 foretold of a correction.  the question now is how long before we see 14k again, months or years.  

troll's picture
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end of the year

Dust Bunny's picture
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PinBroker wrote:
For me the hardest part of this job is managing expectations.  For the last 4 years clients have seen the market go straight up  and we can preach to them all we want about  tempering their expectations  but they still think 20%  and positive returns every month on their statements are god given......right up there with "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."
Two weeks from now, when clients get their statements it will be soooooo much fun.
Pinn

Don't wait until your clients get their statements.  You should be calling everyone and going over the market, their accounts, calming their fears and making adjustments in the portfolios if needed.  You can run but you can't hide.  If your clients think you have your head in the sand, they will leave you in droves.
 

vbrainy's picture
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Joined: 2006-07-26

At last, a good thread.  Not yet corrupted by the trolls.
Mr. client, this is a part of the market.  I have no idea what the market will do in the short run.  We have good asset allocation and we need to ride this bump out and stick with out plan.
Hand holding time.
Hopefully, you all call your clients in good times and bad.

vbrainy's picture
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Ashland wrote:How low can it go?
Just as I was leaving I saw your quote from Steve Prefontaine.  He was the stuff.  They were playing that movie a week ago and the whole family was glued to the set.
Can't believe his coach blew the Olympics for him.

troll's picture
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vbrainy wrote:
At last, a good thread.  Not yet corrupted by the trolls.
Mr. client, this is a part of the market.  I have no idea what the market will do in the short run.  We have good asset allocation and we need to ride this bump out and stick with out plan.
Hand holding time.
Hopefully, you all call your clients in good times and bad.

If I am paying you to manage my money why did you not take me out of the market at 14,000 and buy in again at 13,000?

troll's picture
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Tarheels's picture
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DATwo wrote:vbrainy wrote:
At last, a good thread.  Not yet corrupted by the trolls.
Mr. client, this is a part of the market.  I have no idea what the market will do in the short run.  We have good asset allocation and we need to ride this bump out and stick with out plan.
Hand holding time.
Hopefully, you all call your clients in good times and bad.

If I am paying you to manage my money why did you not take me out of the market at 14,000 and buy in again at 13,000?

 
Did Bernstein do that?  I doubt it.

troll's picture
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Tarheels wrote:DATwo wrote:vbrainy wrote:
At last, a good thread.  Not yet corrupted by the trolls.
Mr. client, this is a part of the market.  I have no idea what the market will do in the short run.  We have good asset allocation and we need to ride this bump out and stick with out plan.
Hand holding time.
Hopefully, you all call your clients in good times and bad.

If I am paying you to manage my money why did you not take me out of the market at 14,000 and buy in again at 13,000?

Did Bernstein do that?  I doubt it.

What difference does that make?  Are you not better than Bernstein?

vbrainy's picture
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Joined: 2006-07-26

My accounts are down too.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I will work hard to do the very best for you.  The stock market is a long term investment.  Our plan will get us where you want to be in the long run.

Dust Bunny's picture
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Joined: 2007-05-07

I don't have a crystal ball, but I will work hard to do the very best for you
As an aside.   I have one of those Magic 8 Balls on my desk; one of those things you turn over and get an answer to a question.  Many of my clients who are of "a certain age" remember playing with this in their youth.   It's a great ice breaker when I get asked "What is the market going to do?"   I make a joke about my crystal ball being just a bit cloudy as I reach for the 8 ball.  Usually gets a laugh and then we can discuss the market and their accounts in a serious manner.

pretzelhead's picture
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Joined: 2007-03-23

Keep on timin' it DAtoo- eventually you'll lose it all and have to sell your computer to buy cat food and we won't have to hear all of your dribbling drivel.
Didn't you say it was going to 11k? 

vbrainy's picture
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Joined: 2006-07-26

Pulling up before the end of the year?

CAPM's picture
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Joined: 2007-08-17

Ferris Bueller wrote:I think the 11K number was how much he has in his retirement account.

CAPM's picture
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DATwoIf I am paying you to manage my money why did you not take me out of the market at 14,000 and buy in again at 13,000?[/quote wrote:
My clients weren't down 7%, so they didn't want to sell............

CAPM's picture
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CAPM wrote:
DATwoIf I am paying you to manage my money why did you not take me out of the market at 14,000 and buy in again at 13,000?[/quote wrote:
My clients weren't down 7%, so they didn't want to sell............

Oops.....double positive...how about an edit feature on here? 

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

Next question...
What happens if we don't get a rate cut?  What's safe?

Dust Bunny's picture
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Joined: 2007-05-07

Sounds like we are getting one.... at least on the conference call I just attended on floating rate funds, the managers seemed to think it was fairly postive that we would.  Of course, they would put a positive spin on it.

troll's picture
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I am sorry, but I have no idea what I am talking about.  Please forgive me.

Dust Bunny's picture
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Dust Bunny wrote:I am sorry, but I have no idea what I am talking about.  Please forgive me.
Cute  

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

My wife is making me leave early tonight boys and girls.  The uniform is back from the cleaners.  God you should have seen the stains....well ta tah....  to infinity and beyond.   Standard deviation +/- 1/2 inch.

Ashland's picture
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Joined: 2007-03-07

One night... 364 days to get rid of stains...

That's a lot of headaches! I wonder, is your NAV going down?

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