Next 20% Move ?

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Ron 14's picture
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Joined: 2008-07-10

Is it up or down ?

jkl1v1n6's picture
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I'll bite.  20% will be up but not for a while.  We might see 10-12% down before we see 20% up. 

Ron 14's picture
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 A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
 
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction.

snaggletooth's picture
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Ron 14 wrote: A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
 
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction.
 
I'd be pissed too if my advisor thought the market would be under 4000 and didn't make my money safer.
 
 
 
 
Please sense the sarcasm and understand that was a joke!

HymanRoth's picture
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snaggletooth wrote:Ron 14 wrote: A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
 
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction.
 
I'd be pissed too if my advisor thought the market would be under 4000 and didn't make my money safer.
 
 
 
 
Please sense the sarcasm and understand that was a joke!I'd be pissed if my advisor took advantage of my fear and sold me a product that was capped at 6-7% annual return when the market was down 50% from its highs...especially after the market rallied 20% in 30 days.That wasn't a joke.

snaggletooth's picture
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HymanRoth wrote: snaggletooth wrote:Ron 14 wrote: A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
 
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction.
 
I'd be pissed too if my advisor thought the market would be under 4000 and didn't make my money safer.
 
 
 
 
Please sense the sarcasm and understand that was a joke!I'd be pissed if my advisor took advantage of my fear and sold me a product that was capped at 6-7% annual return when the market was down 50% from its highs...especially after the market rallied 20% in 30 days.That wasn't a joke.
 
You're a douchebag.  There was one point in time where I respected what you wrote.  But you don't know me, my clients, or what portion of their money I manage.  You also are ignorant to the fact I wouldn't ever put money in something that was capped out at 6-7% annual return.  Moreover, you have no idea what portion annuity/fixed, index, or variable, makes up my book.
 
I hope you drive off a cliff on your way home tonight.

Indyone's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-31

I'd say up and before the year ends, although I'm expecting the typical retracement, which could come close to 20% on the downside (I'm guessing between 15-18%).  Get your asset allocation back to normal by the end of June...most of the action will probably be in the 2nd half of the year.
 
Actually most of that is just a regurgitation of what LPL's research dept. is saying, although I wouldn't repeat it if I didn't agree.

Sam Houston's picture
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Joined: 2008-12-01

down, started a couple days ago.  last chance for the shorts.

HAAIC's picture
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Joined: 2009-03-30

Sideways.

gvf's picture
gvf
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Joined: 2008-07-01

Snaggs, looks like you took the bait.  chomp chomp.  

brandnewadvisor's picture
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Joined: 2007-03-23

down - starts this week; could be much more than 20% down.

rankstocks's picture
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Up, 20% by the end of the year.

Squash1's picture
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Joined: 2008-11-19

rankstocks wrote:Up, 20% by the end of the year.
 
Hopefully that is a joke like your picture is..

Incredible Hulk's picture
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Joined: March 24 2006
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Quote Incredible Hulk
Edit Post   Quote Reply Posted: Feb. 20 2009 at 11:52am
A couple reasons. I'll start with my gut, based on what feels like capitulation from personal client interactions. Despair in the media, on wall street, in DC, and on main street all point to a "low point" for me. I went out to eat at a nice restaurant and it was completely full. I wait in line on Thursday (not a weekend) at Best Buy that is 20 deep. I spent $40 on some computer cord. The world is not ending. People are still spending. Every time (as if I've seen more than the (2000-2002 mrkt) there is 0 hope to be found and the bears are smiling as if they can't be wrong, then we are at/near the bottom. Investments cycle. The longs think we can't be wrong, then we are wrong for awhile. The shorts begin to think they can't be wrong, then they are wrong for awhile. My gut (whiich has been wrong) tells me we are there.
From a fundamental standpoint. I think companies throw everything and the kitchen sink in for writedowns on the first quarter and pushes s&p earnings to $50-$55 an annualized basis giving us a current pe near 13. I think by 3rd or 4th quarter, the writedowns are no longer there and with even a slight uptick from all this money they're throwing into the system we see quarterly earnings closer to $65 annualized. Based on future expectations, what will be then current valuations and having the worst behind us, I think 15 is a resonable PE for the market we finally see the cash flow in from the sidelines pushing us to 1000 on the s&p.

I tell my clients I'm an eternal optimist. Unfortunately, I've been wrong the last decade, but I think the next decade looks very promising (see the optimism).

Feel free to shoot holes through my reasoning. I spend my days selling against the media, I might as well sell against other brokers too.

My Post from February - 2 weeks before the "current" bottom - and my still current belief of reaching 1000 on the s&p by year end. Only 15% more to go...

Ron 14's picture
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iceco1d wrote:Ron 14 wrote: A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
 
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction.
 
The guy was probably pissed because you told him the same thing when the Dow dropped below 14,000...
 
Gotta watch when you use that line these days! 
 
Actually you dont. Wasn't it you that said you don't have any clients down 50% ? Most who were diversified never went down that much. Although 25-30% isn't fun it sure doesn't prevent you from using that line.

Gaddock's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

If you're market neutral it doesn't matter.

Mishigun's picture
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Joined: 2009-04-16

Up. Inches upward, turn the gas to low on the cold water and slowly boil the frog. There could panic buying, later

buyandhold's picture
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Joined: 2008-09-23

I just hope the next 100 percent move is up.

Ron 14's picture
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Gaddock wrote:If you're market neutral it doesn't matter.
 
 
Let me write that down. So if you have a neutral position, you don't care which direction the market goes.
 
Come on. Are we going to have this conversation again?

Mishigun's picture
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You gotta have some balsa.

Ron 14's picture
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What are you talking about ?

Ron 14's picture
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I see what you mean, sorry I took offense, lol !

norway401's picture
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Upwards trend for the balance of the year with numerous specific buying or selling opportunities. Full Year TSX up a solid 12%. NYSE 10%.
Here's hoping

dshibb's picture
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Joined: 2009-03-30

Can't say how big the decline will be, but there should be a substantial pull back in the near future. A medium sized one, and that becomes a huge factor in supporting a recovery, a big one and we aren't out of the woods yet. Sell off a small portion of your portfolio and hedge your position with some put options. If the put options don't get exercised, who cares that means the rest of your portfolio is holding up well and we are looking at a sustained recovery. If the put options do get exercised/sold, I got some additional funds to pick up equities on the cheap. My prediction 10 to 30% pull back, but I'm going to play it at the 10 side because its better to early than late to the party.

Ron 14's picture
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Joined: 2008-07-10

There are some extremely juicy puts on the NDX available right now. Strikes below the 1000 line at 1.5 and 2 bid for June. We aren't going there and if we do I am more than happy to be a buyer.

rankstocks's picture
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12000 by the end of '10

chief123's picture
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rankstocks wrote: 12000 by the end of '10

This is why you shouldn't get drunk and then post.

Spaceman Spiff's picture
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rankstocks wrote:Up, 20% by the end of the year  - Squash thought he was joking
jkl1v1n6 wrote: 20% will be up but not for a while.  We might see 10-12% down before we see 20% up.  - Ice agreed with him.
 
Sam Houston wrote: down, started a couple days ago.  last chance for the shorts.
 
HAAIC wrote: Sideways 
 
brandnewadvisor wrote: down - starts this week; could be much more than 20% down.
 
Indyone and norway gave thought the market might be up a little bit or have an upward trend. 
 
So, it appears that rank was the only one to be anywhere close.  Instead of mocking him, perhaps you might want to ask him why he thinks that. 
 
 
 
 

Squash1's picture
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Joined: 2008-11-19

i didn't realize the year was over???

noggin's picture
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Squash1 wrote:i didn't realize the year was over???
It is, next month it will be 2011.

Spaceman Spiff's picture
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Joined: 2006-08-08

It's not.  My point wasn't to poke fun at those of you who didn't post what rank did, but to poke fun at chief for making a statement like that about the only guy here who was actually in the ballpark with his prediction. 

chief123's picture
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Joined: 2008-10-28

What ballpark are you playing in? I would hate to insert a EDJ comment so I won't but what is wrong with judging based on someone's predictions? Isn't that why he puts them out there?

Secondly why not claim a higher percentage, we are at 20% now and he thinks we are going to 12,000?? I don't think 20% was a bad bet(i think it will be lower), however saying it will go to 12,000.. same irrational exhuberance spewed by CNBC and do it yourself investors.

Also what good do predictions do? Other then set you up to look foolish.

huanic's picture
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Joined: 2009-10-20

What ballpark are you playing in? I new york asian escorts would hate to insert a new york asian escort EDJ comment
so I won't but what is wrong with judging based on someone's
predictions? Isn't that why he puts them out there?

Secondly why not claim a higher new york escorts percentage, we are at 20% now and
he thinks we are going to 12,000?? I don't think 20% was a bad bet(i
think it will be lower), however saying it will go to 12,000.. same
irrational exhuberance spewed by CNBC and do it yourself investors.

Also what good do predictions do? Other new york escort then set you up to look foolish.

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