Dow 12,000 - NEWBIE
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[quote=Soon 2 B Gone]It was certainly a bold prediction--the Dow as at 11,500 and he said it would go to 12,000. A regular maven.[/quote]
If you can't read a chart better than that, well enough to know where the Dow was on 19 July, perhaps you should give him your money to stop your bleeding.
Hmmm “fuzzy math?”, the Dow was at 10,854 when I made the call. Also, if you remember the reason I made the call is old NEWBIE was painting a doom and gloom picture, I am by no means a genius, however, my opinion would have held up, you’ll see when we pass the old 12K, I see alot of guys on TV with stupid opinions and the folks on CNBC bring them back time and time again for more stupid opinions when the last thing they said crashed and burned.
Bankrep, I echoed your prediction to many of my clients and added this to it--"And regular unleaded will be $2.00 per gallon on election day." I might miss that one by a little bit in my area of the country, but it will be a hell of a lot closer to $2.00 per gallon than $3.00.
(See, they don't call me Soothsayer for nothin', although Bankrep had way more sack than me to put the 12,000 call on this board.)
I am still worried about next year, probably sometime around the second quarter--most likely May or June. I still say there is no soft landing for real estate, only hard lessons. There was simply too much liquidity and money floating around for too long for some real pain to not be felt. There. That's my prediction.
[quote=Soothsayer]
Bankrep, I echoed your prediction to many of my clients and added this to it–“And regular unleaded will be $2.00 per gallon on election day.” I might miss that one by a little bit in my area of the country, but it will be a hell of a lot closer to $2.00 per gallon than $3.00.
(See, they don't call me Soothsayer for nothin', although Bankrep had way more sack than me to put the 12,000 call on this board.)
I am still worried about next year, probably sometime around the second quarter--most likely May or June. I still say there is no soft landing for real estate, only hard lessons. There was simply too much liquidity and money floating around for too long for some real pain to not be felt. There. That's my prediction.
[/quote]Dude great line!
Getting closer… where is the doom and gloom Newbie talked about? Maybe that is why he changed his screename, utter embarrassment
[quote=bankrep1]Getting closer..... where is the doom and gloom Newbie talked about? Maybe that is why he changed his screename, utter embarrassment[/quote]
If the Dow doesn't get there tomorrow it probably won't--tech earnings coming tomorrow are expected to be somewhat soft and the market may take any of them very hard.
On the other hand, if it does close above 12,000 tomorrow--or anytime--does that mean it will never go to 6,000 as I think it will?
Tell me again, how many weeks have you been in the business?
If the Dow doesn’t hit 12K before the election, I don’t think you’ll see it this year. New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don’t see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
[quote=bankrep1]It will never see 6000. [/quote]
Is that right? Why don't you think so? What are the fundamentals that will prevent a 50% decline in the value of thirty companies?
[quote=Indyone]If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year. New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.[/quote]
Amen to that. How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control? Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
[quote=Soon 2 B Gone]
[quote=bankrep1]It will never see 6000. [/quote]
Is that right? Why don't you think so? What are the fundamentals that will prevent a 50% decline in the value of thirty companies?
[/quote]
The same ones that prevent a 99% decline in their values.
[quote=Indyone]If the Dow doesn’t hit 12K before the election, I don’t think you’ll see it this year. New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don’t see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
Amen to that. How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control? Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet. [/quote]
Unfortunately, there's not a lot of refuge in bonds from what I can see, although I'm certainly migrating that direction again, especially since I'm not seeing much upward rate movement. I've held stocks stubbornly, and I certainly won't abandone them, but a 20% allocation shift is probably in the cards for me and my clients. I'm using very short paper and ETFs to cover this area. I should probably defer to Bond Guy/tjc and others who are better bond traders than me, but that's my simple solution on that side. Equally obvious is to stay with defensive/undervalued equities and dividend payers. I keep expecting large growth to makea move, but I'm perplexed as to when, so I'm not adding any exposure in that area now either.
Of course, you could always just take the anti-Cramer strategy of doing the opposite of what Mad Money is recommending. I think he was pounding the table for tech stocks last week and here they are today getting crushed again...what an idiot.
At any rate, that is my generic two cents (without specific recommendations...).
[quote=babbling looney]
[quote=Indyone]If the Dow doesn’t hit 12K before the election, I don’t think you’ll see it this year. New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don’t see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.[/quote]
Amen to that. How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control? Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
[/quote]I'll be buying some puts if the Dems continue to look better in the polls.
[quote=joedabrkr] [quote=babbling looney]
[quote=Indyone]If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year. New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.[/quote]
Amen to that. How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control? Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
[/quote]
I'll be buying some puts if the Dems continue to look better in the polls.
[/quote]
The odd lot theory come to life.
[quote=Soon 2 B Gone][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=babbling looney]
[quote=Indyone]If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year. New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.[/quote]
Amen to that. How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control? Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
[/quote]
I'll be buying some puts if the Dems continue to look better in the polls.
[/quote]
The odd lot theory come to life.
[/quote]
Ouch. Had to hit him below the belt eh?
30 companies. Not really if a compnay starts to look bad they will replace it. Think about all of the moves they have made in the past.
Forget polls.There's a website that has an uncanny ability to predict political outcomes, www.tradesports.com. This website allows people to trade, with real money, predicted outcomes of political races or sports.
Right now, according to trades placed thus far, the Republicans have received 66% of the trades to retain control of both the House and Senate. Typically, anything over 80% is considered a sure thing; so, a 66% majority is still wishy-washy.