Dow 12,000 - NEWBIE

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bankrep1's picture
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Newbie,

The comments big ben made today make me all the more confident in my call, the Dow will hit 12,000 before the end of the year!

TexasRep's picture
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give him some time to respond....
i'm sure he's busy covering his A$$ after shorting the market the day before.
 

NASD Newbie's picture
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TexasRep wrote:
give him some time to respond....
i'm sure he's busy covering his A$$ after shorting the market the day before.

Short the market?  I ended net short GOOG on Tuesday, not the market.

TexasRep's picture
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well that's working---
i thought in the thread where you and Bankrep1 were going at it, you were talking about shorting the market due to a very bearish bias........
 

bankrep1's picture
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Getting closer . . .

JCadieux's picture
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Here's my layman's prediction:The Dow will be above 12,000 on Election Day, but will be below 12,000 on New Year's Day.Disclaimer:  I am not a broker.  This is not advice.

apprentice's picture
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JC - do you believe that Oil prices will rise again after the elections?
You're making me nervous - like a Democrat in a good economy.

JCadieux's picture
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apprentice wrote:JC - do you believe that Oil prices will rise again after the elections?
I'm probably one of the least qualified people on this board to make these predictions.  As long as everybody agrees that this is all in good fun:Much of the decline in the price of oil is (according to rumors here in Houston) due to an unexpectedly uneventful hurricane season.A lot of short term speculators were planning on a bad summer, so they took it in the shorts.  They're leaving the market in droves, which is further driving down the price.I think that oil is going to level off soon and become pretty boring, with the occasional scare from geopolitical factors.

troll's picture
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bankrep1 wrote:Newbie, The comments big ben made today make me all the more confident in my call, the Dow will hit 12,000 before the end of the year!
 
Congrats on your call, made all the more special since it was made during a tough time and in the face of more senior people here talking about the strong possibility of bearish outcomes....

BrokerRecruit's picture
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I would agree.  Pretty bold statement, especially given the fact that it was made in July with six months left in the year.

dude's picture
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Damn fine work.  We still have a ways to go and nothing guarantees that the market won't fall from here, but still....damn fine work.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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Joined: 2006-09-27

Has the Dow hit 12,000?

Indyone's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-31

11,960.51.  That's close enough that you shouldn't be smug about it.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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As the talking heads keep reminding us, twenty of the Dow thirty, have had a decent run.  But the broad market is not all that healthy, it's a cyclical rotation.
What's got me bamboozled is the churning going on in Google.  Just about everybody says that buying YouTube was a dumb idea, yet the stock won't go down.  Earnings due on Thursday--my upside breakeven is at 432 or so and I'm nervous as whore in church.  I suspect I'll chicken out and reduce my exposure on Wednesday or Thursday--but I keep telling myself you have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
How's your production Indy--up to 250,000 annualized?  Not bad for a guy who's been around for seventeen years.

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I won't touch GOOG with a ten-foot pole...too irrational to go long or short.  Valuation says it's ridiculously overpriced yet the disciples keep buying..'99 all over again for that one.
My production is good...how's retirement?  Have you started those paperclip chains for your Christmas tree yet?

dude's picture
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Indyone wrote:11,960.51.  That's close enough that you shouldn't be smug about it.
Agreed.  Especially since, like already mentioned, the prediction was made at a time when the markets were showing weakness.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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dude wrote:
Indyone wrote:11,960.51.  That's close enough that you shouldn't be smug about it.
Agreed.  Especially since, like already mentioned, the prediction was made at a time when the markets were showing weakness.

If you think you can talk me into transfering my accounts to that bank kid you're wrong.
It was certainly a bold prediction--the Dow as at 11,500 and he said it would go to 12,000.  A regular maven.

dude's picture
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Soon 2 B Back,
You should transfer your accounts to the bank kid. 

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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dude wrote:
Soon 2 B Back,
You should transfer your accounts to the bank kid. 

So I could quadruple his AUM?

dude's picture
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Sure.  You're a nice guy, why not?

bankrep1's picture
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You are so dumb i bet my book is bigger than both of yours combined

dude's picture
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Oh yeah, well my dad can beat your dad up.

troll's picture
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Soon 2 B Gone wrote:It was certainly a bold prediction--the Dow as at 11,500 and he said it would go to 12,000.  A regular maven.
If you can't read a chart better than that, well enough to know where the Dow was on 19 July, perhaps you should give him your money to stop your bleeding.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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Read a chart?  Hell man, I'm using my flawless memory.  Don't tell me I"m wrong.

bankrep1's picture
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Hmmm "fuzzy math?", the Dow was at 10,854 when I made the call. Also, if you remember the reason I made the call is old NEWBIE was painting a doom and gloom picture, I am by no means a genius, however, my opinion would have held up, you'll see when we pass the old 12K, I see alot of guys on TV with stupid opinions and the folks on CNBC bring them back time and time again for more stupid opinions when the last thing they said crashed and burned.

Soothsayer's picture
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Bankrep, I echoed your prediction to many of my clients and added this to it--"And regular unleaded will be $2.00 per gallon on election day."  I might miss that one by a little bit in my area of the country, but it will be a hell of a lot closer to $2.00 per gallon than $3.00. 
(See, they don't call me Soothsayer for nothin', although Bankrep had way more sack than me to put the 12,000 call on this board.)
I am still worried about next year, probably sometime around the second quarter--most likely May or June.  I still say there is no soft landing for real estate, only hard lessons.  There was simply too much liquidity and money floating around for too long for some real pain to not be felt.  There.  That's my prediction.

troll's picture
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Soothsayer wrote:Bankrep, I echoed your prediction to many of my clients and added this to it--"And regular unleaded will be $2.00 per gallon on election day."  I might miss that one by a little bit in my area of the country, but it will be a hell of a lot closer to $2.00 per gallon than $3.00. 
(See, they don't call me Soothsayer for nothin', although Bankrep had way more sack than me to put the 12,000 call on this board.)
I am still worried about next year, probably sometime around the second quarter--most likely May or June.  I still say there is no soft landing for real estate, only hard lessons.  There was simply too much liquidity and money floating around for too long for some real pain to not be felt.  There.  That's my prediction.Dude great line!

bankrep1's picture
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Getting closer..... where is the doom and gloom Newbie talked about? Maybe that is why he changed his screename, utter embarrassment

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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bankrep1 wrote:Getting closer..... where is the doom and gloom Newbie talked about? Maybe that is why he changed his screename, utter embarrassment
If the Dow doesn't get there tomorrow it probably won't--tech earnings coming tomorrow are expected to be somewhat soft and the market may take any of them very hard.
On the other hand, if it does close above 12,000 tomorrow--or anytime--does that mean it will never go to 6,000 as I think it will?
Tell me again, how many weeks have you been in the business?

Indyone's picture
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If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year.  New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.

bankrep1's picture
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It will never see 6000.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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bankrep1 wrote:It will never see 6000.
Is that right?  Why don't you think so?  What are the fundamentals that will prevent a 50% decline in the value of thirty companies?

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Indyone wrote:If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year.  New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
Amen to that.  How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control?  Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.

troll's picture
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Soon 2 B Gone wrote:
bankrep1 wrote:It will never see 6000.
Is that right?  Why don't you think so?  What are the fundamentals that will prevent a 50% decline in the value of thirty companies?

 
The same ones that prevent a 99% decline in their values.

Indyone's picture
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babbling looney wrote:Indyone wrote:If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year.  New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
Amen to that.  How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control?  Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
Unfortunately, there's not a lot of refuge in bonds from what I can see, although I'm certainly migrating that direction again, especially since I'm not seeing much upward rate movement.  I've held stocks stubbornly, and I certainly won't abandone them, but a 20% allocation shift is probably in the cards for me and my clients.  I'm using very short paper and ETFs to cover this area.  I should probably defer to Bond Guy/tjc and others who are better bond traders than me, but that's my simple solution on that side.  Equally obvious is to stay with defensive/undervalued equities and dividend payers.  I keep expecting large growth to makea move, but I'm perplexed as to when, so I'm not adding any exposure in that area now either.
Of course, you could always just take the anti-Cramer strategy of doing the opposite of what Mad Money is recommending.  I think he was pounding the table for tech stocks last week and here they are today getting crushed again...what an idiot.
At any rate, that is my generic two cents (without specific recommendations...).

troll's picture
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babbling looney wrote:Indyone wrote:If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year.  New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
Amen to that.  How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control?  Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet. I'll be buying some puts if the Dems continue to look better in the polls.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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joedabrkr wrote: babbling looney wrote:
Indyone wrote:If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year.  New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
Amen to that.  How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control?  Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
I'll be buying some puts if the Dems continue to look better in the polls.
The odd lot theory come to life.

dude's picture
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Soon 2 B Gone wrote:joedabrkr wrote: babbling looney wrote:
Indyone wrote:If the Dow doesn't hit 12K before the election, I don't think you'll see it this year.  New polls show the Dems likely getting both the house and senate, and I don't see Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy being good for the market.
Amen to that.  How are you planning to reposition your client's portfolios to protect against the upcoming market decline if the Dems get control?  Theoretical of course, since we can't offer investment advice on the internet.
I'll be buying some puts if the Dems continue to look better in the polls.
The odd lot theory come to life.

Ouch.  Had to hit him below the belt eh?

bankrep1's picture
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30 companies. Not really if a compnay starts to look bad they will replace it. Think about all of the moves they have made in the past.

doberman's picture
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Forget polls.There's a website that has an uncanny ability to predict political outcomes, www.tradesports.com. This website allows people to trade, with real money, predicted outcomes of political races or sports. 
Right now, according to trades placed thus far, the Republicans have received 66% of the trades to retain control of both the House and Senate. Typically, anything over 80% is considered a sure thing; so, a 66% majority is still wishy-washy.

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bankrep1 wrote:30 companies. Not really if a compnay starts to look bad they will replace it. Think about all of the moves they have made in the past.
So you're saying that the Dow Industrials is a manipulated stock index and cannot be relied to as an indicator of anything?
Who do you suppose is manipulating it?
Tell us again, how many hours has it been since you entered the business?

troll's picture
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Soon 2 B Gone wrote:
bankrep1 wrote:30 companies. Not really if a compnay starts to look bad they will replace it. Think about all of the moves they have made in the past.
So you're saying that the Dow Industrials is a manipulated stock index and cannot be relied to as an indicator of anything?
 
Don't tell me Putsy thinks the Dow 30 has been the same stocks since inception....

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Putsy looks like you need an edamacation:

According to Dow Jones, the industrial average started out with 12 stocks in 1896. For all of you trivia buffs out there, those original stocks and their fates are as follows: American Cotton Oil (traces remain in CPC International), American Sugar (eventually became Amstar Holdings), American Tobacco (killed by antitrust action in 1911), Chicago Gas (absorbed by Peoples Gas), Distilling and Cattle Feeding (evolved into Quantum Chemical), General Electric (the only survivor), Laclede Gas (now Laclede Group but not in the index), National Lead (now NL Industries but not in the index), North American (group of utilities broken up in 1940s), Tennesee Coal and Iron (gobbled up by U.S. Steel), U.S. Leather preferred (vanished around 1952), and U.S. Rubber (became Uniroyal, in turn bought by Michelin). The number of stocks was increased to 20 in 1916. The 30-stock average made its debut in 1928, and the number has remained constant ever since.

Here are some of the recent changes.

On 17 March 1997, Hewlett-Packard, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers Group, and Wal-Mart joined the average, replacing Bethlehem Steel, Texaco, Westinghouse Electric and Woolworth.
In 1998, Travelers Group merged with CitiBank, and the new entity, CitiGroup, replaced the Travelers Group.
On 1 November 1999, Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft, and SBC Communications joined the average, replacing Union Carbide, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Sears, and Chevron.
Between 1999 and 2004, several stocks in the index merged and/or changed names: Exxon became Exxon-Mobil after their merger; Allied-Signal merged with Honeywell and kept the Honeywell name; JP Morgan became JP Morgan Chase after their merger; Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing offically became 3M Corp; and Philip Morris renamed itself Altria.
On 8 April 2004, American International Group, Pfizer, and Verizon joined the average, replacing AT&T, Eastman Kodak, and International Paper.

bankrep1's picture
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Does this look manipulated to you? Or could it just be a broad measure of our economy going forward. To say 6000 is to say, no area of our economy will be making money more so than today. I don't buy it.

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bankrep1 wrote:Does this look manipulated to you? Or could it just be a broad measure of our economy going forward. To say 6000 is to say, no area of our economy will be making money more so than today. I don't buy it.
The Dow has been cut in half several times.  I watched it drop from +/- 1,000 to about 575 in the 1970s--in the previous decades the declines were even greater.
It is nonsense to believe that it is not possible for earnings to decline.
Tell us again, how many minutes have you been in the business?

bankrep1's picture
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Just a few and I have managed to acquire more knowledge than you'll ever have. First no one should invest in the DJIA with their portfolio so who really cares, my point is if the index is falling consistently for reasons more than the fear of a bear market they will address the issue. Don't you think things are a little more proactive today than in the past?

That is like saying don't put your money in a bank because I was around for the depression. or stocks are a bad investment because one day in 1987 people lost alot of money.

Soon 2 B Gone's picture
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bankrep1 wrote:Just a few and I have managed to acquire more knowledge than you'll ever have. First no one should invest in the DJIA with their portfolio so who really cares, my point is if the index is falling consistently for reasons more than the fear of a bear market they will address the issue. Don't you think things are a little more proactive today than in the past? That is like saying don't put your money in a bank because I was around for the depression. or stocks are a bad investment because one day in 1987 people lost alot of money.
What do you mean when you use the word "proactive?"  Are you suggesting that decision makers will simply replace underperforming stocks with others simply because they are underperforming?
When Kodak was dropped from the Dow did that mean that people who were invested in Kodak lost even more, or did they lose less--why do you suppose Kodak was dropped at all?

troll's picture
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Soon 2 B Gone wrote:bankrep1 wrote:30 companies. Not really if a compnay starts to look bad they will replace it. Think about all of the moves they have made in the past.
So you're saying that the Dow Industrials is a manipulated stock index and cannot be relied to as an indicator of anything?
Who do you suppose is manipulating it?
Tell us again, how many hours has it been since you entered the business?Tell us again Putsy, when you fart does dust come out?

troll's picture
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Soon 2 B Gone wrote:
It is nonsense to believe that it is not possible for earnings to decline.
 

 
No one's ever said it wasn't possible, but don't let that stop you, old timer.

AirForce's picture
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On 17 March 1997, Hewlett-Packard, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers Group, and Wal-Mart joined the average, replacing Bethlehem Steel, Texaco, Westinghouse Electric and Woolworth.
In 1998, Travelers Group merged with CitiBank, and the new entity, CitiGroup, replaced the Travelers Group.
On 1 November 1999, Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft, and SBC Communications joined the average, replacing Union Carbide, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Sears, and Chevron.
Between 1999 and 2004, several stocks in the index merged and/or changed names: Exxon became Exxon-Mobil after their merger; Allied-Signal merged with Honeywell and kept the Honeywell name; JP Morgan became JP Morgan Chase after their merger; Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing offically became 3M Corp; and Philip Morris renamed itself Altria.
On 8 April 2004, American International Group, Pfizer, and Verizon joined the average, replacing AT&T, Eastman Kodak, and International Paper.

This really opens one's eye's. ''''???

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bankrep1 wrote: According to Dow Jones, the industrial average started out with 12 stocks in 1896. For all of you trivia buffs out there, those original stocks and their fates are as follows: American Cotton Oil (traces remain in CPC International), American Sugar (eventually became Amstar Holdings), American Tobacco (killed by antitrust action in 1911), Chicago Gas (absorbed by Peoples Gas), Distilling and Cattle Feeding (evolved into Quantum Chemical), General Electric (the only survivor), Laclede Gas (now Laclede Group but not in the index), National Lead (now NL Industries but not in the index), North American (group of utilities broken up in 1940s), Tennesee Coal and Iron (gobbled up by U.S. Steel), U.S. Leather preferred (vanished around 1952), and U.S. Rubber (became Uniroyal, in turn bought by Michelin). The number of stocks was increased to 20 in 1916. The 30-stock average made its debut in 1928, and the number has remained constant ever since. Here are some of the recent changes. On 17 March 1997, Hewlett-Packard, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers Group, and Wal-Mart joined the average, replacing Bethlehem Steel, Texaco, Westinghouse Electric and Woolworth. In 1998, Travelers Group merged with CitiBank, and the new entity, CitiGroup, replaced the Travelers Group. On 1 November 1999, Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft, and SBC Communications joined the average, replacing Union Carbide, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Sears, and Chevron. Between 1999 and 2004, several stocks in the index merged and/or changed names: Exxon became Exxon-Mobil after their merger; Allied-Signal merged with Honeywell and kept the Honeywell name; JP Morgan became JP Morgan Chase after their merger; Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing offically became 3M Corp; and Philip Morris renamed itself Altria. On 8 April 2004, American International Group, Pfizer, and Verizon joined the average, replacing AT&T, Eastman Kodak, and International Paper.
It's really wild to see it all listed out like that.  Sometimes I forget just how often it does change.  Thanks Bank.

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