commodities play..look at food costs

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Broker7's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CW/M
 
This chart looks better than the s&p -)

Morphius's picture
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Joined: 2007-07-21

Maybe if you bought in before it's run up and you're a seller now.  As a potential buyer now, doesn't that chart just holler "bubble" and "buyer beware"?

doneWjones's picture
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Joined: 2006-12-17

Yeah, my cousin who is a very successful real estate agent told me about 3 years ago that people should put all of there money in real estate because "it never goes down". That is when I knew it was just a matter of time before the real estate bubble goes pop!
 
I thing we have been hearing that POP for a while now.

Broker7's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

This is not even close to being at the top of a bubble.  The price for crops will keep going up at this alarming rate.  As a broker, it is your responsibility to know why. Your clients will wish you do.

Morphius's picture
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Broker7 wrote:This is not even close to being at the top of a bubble.  The price for crops will keep going up at this alarming rate.  As a broker, it is your responsibility to know why. Your clients will wish you do.Glad to hear your crystal ball is working so well.  I guess THIS time really is different from the past ...

Broker7's picture
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Morphius,
I thought you took the green pill.  No crystal ball involved. Just looking at world energy and commodities inventory, transportation and production costs vs. DEMAND....skyrocketing demand.  The first couple of dominos have already fallen.

doneWjones's picture
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Joined: 2006-12-17

POP, POP, POP, POP,POP........
 
All kidding aside, I do think that it is a area where aggressive growth oriented investors should look for some diversification, but diversification is the key here as with any investment.  When you say, "The price for crops will keep going up at this alarming rate", I say, that is what the "experts" said about the tech sector just a few years ago and we all know what happened there.  Please do your clients a favor and don't overweight them.
 
Merry Christmas

Morphius's picture
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Broker7 wrote:Morphius,
I thought you took the green pill.  No crystal ball involved. Just looking at world energy and commodities inventory, transportation and production costs vs. DEMAND....skyrocketing demand.  The first couple of dominos have already fallen.... and now I just need to see how far down the rabbit hole it goes!I understand and appreciate the compelling arguments about commodities prices in light of significant demographics - especially China's & S.E. Asia's rapid development pace - but I didn't take enough of the pills to believe that what comes up will not come down ... this time.I love reading Jim Roger's stuff including his incredible commodity price projections, and he certainly has had some great calls in the past, but I'm a skeptic by nature and am loathe to put too much weight in any particular bet.Only time will tell, of course, but I won't be putting oversized bets there right now.  Good luck, though!

Broker7's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

doneWjones wrote:POP, POP, POP, POP,POP........
 
All kidding aside, I do think that it is a area where aggressive growth oriented investors should look for some diversification, but diversification is the key here as with any investment.  When you say, "The price for crops will keep going up at this alarming rate", I say, that is what the "experts" said about the tech sector just a few years ago and we all know what happened there.  Please do your clients a favor and don't overweight them.
 
Merry Christmas
 
Tech and food have no correlation.  I, and a few my clients are long wheat and oil.  doneWjones...can you tell me... what is peak oil ??

doneWjones's picture
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Joined: 2006-12-17

Wow Broker7... you came to the conclusion that tech and food have no correlation all by yourself. 
I did not correlate them to begin with other than to point out the emotion that is the driver in the creation of most bubbles and the eventual popping... nothing more nothing less.
 
As far as peak oil is concerned, that is open for debate, But the reality is nobody knows and to sit and speculate is just that... speculation.   With advances in technology, alternative fuels, new oil field discoveries, etc.  (Peak Oil is ultimatly a supply and demand issue) no one can say for sure at what level peak oil is.  Unless of course you got that crystal ball working. 
 
But anyway, we are grownups here so please don't wait for my approval to do something stupid.
 
Have a Merry Christmas.

Broker7's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

What happens when oil is $200 a barrel?  Do you understand the coorelation between food and oil??  Food supplies were contracting at $70...today, we are at $97.. remember me when you are paying $5 a gallon at the pump :-)
 
happy new year

MC Lovin's picture
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Joined: 2008-01-14

Morphius wrote: Broker7 wrote:
Morphius,
I thought you took the green pill.  No crystal ball involved. Just looking at world energy and commodities inventory, transportation and production costs vs. DEMAND....skyrocketing demand.  The first couple of dominos have already fallen.... and now I just need to see how far down the rabbit hole it goes!I understand and appreciate the compelling arguments about commodities prices in light of significant demographics - especially China's & S.E. Asia's rapid development pace - but I didn't take enough of the pills to believe that what comes up will not come down ... this time.I love reading Jim Roger's stuff including his incredible commodity price projections, and he certainly has had some great calls in the past, but I'm a skeptic by nature and am loathe to put too much weight in any particular bet.Only time will tell, of course, but I won't be putting oversized bets there right now.  Good luck, though!
 
The DOW was down nearly 2.16 % today (1/15/08). Oil is down. Gold is down. Most commodities were down with the exception of wheat, yes...wheat. 
donewjones, pop pop pop? wake up

Broker7's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

YES..wheat has helped ballast my portfolios!

Broker7's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html

Still long..still making money. Still starving worldwide.

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