10 year Average Return of S&P

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snaggletooth's picture
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Joined: 2007-07-13

Does anyone know a good source that shows the average return of 10 year periods of the S&P?
I need to set someone straight with some facts.
 
Thanks.

deekay's picture
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Joined: 2007-05-15

Are you looking for average, or actual rates of return?
 
Not trying to be a smart-ass, but there is a big difference.

snaggletooth's picture
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Joined: 2007-07-13

10 year rolling averages

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

I was looking for that recently also. Will you post after you find it?

gvf's picture
gvf
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Joined: 2008-07-01

you know, I think wikipedia actually has a good list of actual returns going back to '88edit: here we gohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500

deekay's picture
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Joined: 2007-05-15

From a hypo from American Funds' Advisor Website
 

Start
End
Net Investments
Cumulative dividend income
Capital gains
Shares held
Annual return
Total value

12/31/1927
12/31/1937
$10,000
$5,033
$0
947
-0.00%
$9,996

12/31/1928
12/31/1938
$10,000
$3,502
$0
690
-0.93%
$9,110

12/31/1929
12/31/1939
$10,000
$3,864
$0
794
-0.08%
$9,922

12/31/1930
12/31/1940
$10,000
$5,258
$0
1,127
1.78%
$11,925

12/31/1931
12/31/1941
$10,000
$9,797
$0
2,148
6.44%
$18,662

12/31/1932
12/31/1942
$10,000
$11,423
$0
2,509
9.38%
$24,512

12/31/1933
12/31/1943
$10,000
$7,990
$0
1,712
7.17%
$19,980

12/31/1934
12/31/1944
$10,000
$8,788
$0
1,828
9.28%
$24,280

12/31/1935
12/31/1945
$10,000
$6,439
$0
1,291
8.41%
$22,418

12/31/1936
12/31/1946
$10,000
$5,100
$0
1,006
4.41%
$15,398

12/31/1937
12/31/1947
$10,000
$8,441
$0
1,635
9.61%
$25,022

12/31/1938
12/31/1948
$10,000
$7,256
$0
1,324
7.25%
$20,128

12/31/1939
12/31/1949
$10,000
$8,370
$0
1,431
9.15%
$23,992

12/31/1940
12/31/1950
$10,000
$11,090
$0
1,717
13.36%
$35,035

12/31/1941
12/31/1951
$10,000
$14,574
$0
2,067
17.26%
$49,127

12/31/1942
12/31/1952
$10,000
$14,013
$0
1,818
17.06%
$48,301

12/31/1943
12/31/1953
$10,000
$12,781
$0
1,532
14.29%
$38,016

12/31/1944
12/31/1954
$10,000
$12,227
$0
1,346
17.09%
$48,446

12/31/1945
12/31/1955
$10,000
$10,242
$0
1,027
16.67%
$46,716

12/31/1946
12/31/1956
$10,000
$12,666
$0
1,160
18.40%
$54,136

12/31/1947
12/31/1957
$10,000
$13,451
$0
1,143
16.41%
$45,702

12/31/1948
12/31/1958
$10,000
$14,100
$0
1,125
20.04%
$62,132
+

12/31/1949
12/31/1959
$10,000
$12,979
$0
978
19.34%
$58,573

12/31/1950
12/31/1960
$10,000
$10,636
$0
769
16.15%
$44,694

12/31/1951
12/31/1961
$10,000
$9,274
$0
639
16.42%
$45,741

12/31/1952
12/31/1962
$10,000
$8,490
$0
559
13.44%
$35,287

12/31/1953
12/31/1963
$10,000
$9,315
$0
583
15.91%
$43,759

12/31/1954
12/31/1964
$10,000
$6,658
$0
394
12.82%
$33,408

12/31/1955
12/31/1965
$10,000
$5,536
$0
309
11.07%
$28,561
*

12/31/1956
12/31/1966
$10,000
$5,676
$0
300
9.20%
$24,110

12/31/1957
12/31/1967
$10,000
$6,921
$0
347
12.85%
$33,493

12/31/1958
12/31/1968
$10,000
$5,273
$0
250
10.01%
$25,957

12/31/1959
12/31/1969
$10,000
$5,125
$0
231
7.82%
$21,228

12/31/1960
12/31/1970
$10,000
$5,504
$0
238
8.18%
$21,959

12/31/1961
12/31/1971
$10,000
$4,644
$0
194
7.06%
$19,777

12/31/1962
12/31/1972
$10,000
$5,433
$0
218
9.93%
$25,778

12/31/1963
12/31/1973
$10,000
$4,735
$0
184
6.00%
$17,908

12/31/1964
12/31/1974
$10,000
$4,353
$0
165
1.23%
$11,306

12/31/1965
12/31/1975
$10,000
$4,132
$0
153
3.27%
$13,796

12/31/1966
12/31/1976
$10,000
$4,946
$0
177
6.64%
$19,012

12/31/1967
12/31/1977
$10,000
$4,374
$0
150
3.60%
$14,240

12/31/1968
12/31/1978
$10,000
$4,348
$0
142
3.17%
$13,664

12/31/1969
12/31/1979
$10,000
$5,312
$0
164
5.88%
$17,701

12/31/1970
12/31/1980
$10,000
$5,773
$0
166
8.47%
$22,555

12/31/1971
12/31/1981
$10,000
$5,741
$0
153
6.49%
$18,761

12/31/1972
12/31/1982
$10,000
$5,470
$0
136
6.72%
$19,164

12/31/1973
12/31/1983
$10,000
$7,228
$0
167
10.66%
$27,530

12/31/1974
12/31/1984
$10,000
$11,065
$0
238
14.81%
$39,787

12/31/1975
12/31/1985
$10,000
$9,061
$0
181
14.34%
$38,193

12/31/1976
12/31/1986
$10,000
$8,170
$0
151
13.84%
$36,571

12/31/1977
12/31/1987
$10,000
$9,775
$0
168
15.28%
$41,458

12/31/1978
12/31/1988
$10,000
$10,220
$0
163
16.32%
$45,345

12/31/1979
12/31/1989
$10,000
$9,654
$0
142
17.54%
$50,324

12/31/1980
12/31/1990
$10,000
$8,168
$0
111
13.92%
$36,813

12/31/1981
12/31/1991
$10,000
$9,517
$0
121
17.58%
$50,490

12/31/1982
12/31/1992
$10,000
$8,607
$0
103
16.15%
$44,700

12/31/1983
12/31/1993
$10,000
$7,669
$0
86
14.91%
$40,141

12/31/1984
12/31/1994
$10,000
$7,857
$0
83
14.36%
$38,268

12/31/1985
12/31/1995
$10,000
$6,482
$0
65
14.86%
$39,955

12/31/1986
12/31/1996
$10,000
$5,950
$0
56
15.26%
$41,396

12/31/1987
12/31/1997
$10,000
$6,132
$0
54
18.02%
$52,448

12/31/1988
12/31/1998
$10,000
$5,673
$0
47
19.19%
$57,854

12/31/1989
12/31/1999
$10,000
$4,603
$0
36
18.19%
$53,198

12/31/1990
12/31/2000
$10,000
$5,003
$0
38
17.44%
$49,907

12/31/1991
12/31/2001
$10,000
$4,008
$0
29
12.93%
$33,727

12/31/1992
12/31/2002
$10,000
$3,887
$0
28
9.34%
$24,418

12/31/1993
12/31/2003
$10,000
$3,708
$0
26
11.06%
$28,547

12/31/1994
12/31/2004
$10,000
$3,874
$0
26
12.07%
$31,241

12/31/1995
12/31/2005
$10,000
$3,016
$0
19
9.07%
$23,830

12/31/1996
12/31/2006
$10,000
$2,644
$0
16
8.42%
$22,441

12/31/1997
12/31/2007
$10,000
$2,156
$0
12
5.91%
$17,752

12/31/1998
12/31/2008
$10,000
$1,816
$0
10
-1.38%
$8,700
-

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

Good stuff, thanks!

jkl1v1n6's picture
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Joined: 2008-10-06

snaggletooth wrote:
Does anyone know a good source that shows the average return of 10 year periods of the S&P?
I need to set someone straight with some facts.
 
Thanks.
 
What are you trying to set them straight on? 

Spaceman Spiff's picture
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Joined: 2006-08-08

Do those numbers starting in 1940 going through 1994 make anyone else but me think that the rest of my career could be nothing but roses? 

jkl1v1n6's picture
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Joined: 2008-10-06

The best fertilizer is manure so I guess you could be right in thinking that way!

Spaceman Spiff's picture
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Joined: 2006-08-08

I have been told a time or two on this forum that I'm full of it. 
 
 

jkl1v1n6's picture
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Joined: 2008-10-06

Didn't mean you Spiff. 
 
I'm saying the current market and all that is, is sh*t.  If the future market blooms into beautiful roses, we can look back and see that it was fertilized by all that has gone on in the recent times. 

deekay's picture
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Joined: 2007-05-15

Or, you just may not understand there is a (sometimes significant) difference between average and actual rates of return.

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

What that HYPO proves is that it ALL depends on what generation you invested in.  If you invested in the 20's/30's/60's-early70's/late 90's and beyond, then you are screwed.  If you invested during other eras, then you would be good.  So many people got sucked into the returns they saw from the secular bull from 73-99, that those numbers were the proxy for "always", when in fact, they were just looking at the greatest secular bull market of the century (now, most people define the secular bull as being from 82-99, but it really started more like 1973).
 

Let's hope 2010 = 1973 (I think it will be more like 2013 = 1973, but that's just MHO).

Ron 14's picture
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Joined: 2008-07-10

So you think we are in for 5 years of crap until a move upwards begins ?

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

Well, I personally think we are not going to be back to normal for 5 more years.  Too much stuff to work out.  Too much unemployment. Too many foreclosures.  Housing prices too depressed.  Not enough available credit in the market.  The corporate bond market has a LONG road back.  Too many people are going to buy up all these 3% Treasuries being printed.  Bottom line, there is NO catalyst for a recovery anytime soon.  Will the market move north?  Sure.  Will it get back to 14,000 in 5 years?  Unlikely. 
We are in the midst of a sideways secular bear, which started in 2000.  Most secular cycles take a LONG time to change course.
 
Remember, the last bull market was driven by credit.  Plain and simple.  Where is the money coming from to drive a new secular bull market?  It isn't.  It used to be that companies could do a simple IPO or bond placement and get all the funds they need for growth.  Who's issuing debt now?  Nobody.  Who's writing IPO's?  Nobody.  And who would underwrite them?  How many new homeowners have 20% to pt down on a 250K house? (that's a tiny 60's house in my region of the country)  $50K???  30 year olds don't have it.  Their parents?  Brokerage account down 45%, they are worried about their own retirement.
 
The only caveat would be that our ELECTED officials have changed the course of history with their legislation and proposed legislation.  Things like national health care, tax reform, and massive social spending programs could potentially change the outcome of this game.  And none of us have any idea what that will look like if they get everything they want.  Hang on tight, we just finished the first loop on the rickety old roller coaster.  Two more laps to go. 
 

HymanRoth's picture
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Joined: 2008-08-25

B24 wrote:Well, I personally think we are not going to be back to normal for 5 more years.  Too much stuff to work out.  Too much unemployment. Too many foreclosures.  Housing prices too depressed.  Not enough available credit in the market.  The corporate bond market has a LONG road back.  Too many people are going to buy up all these 3% Treasuries being printed.  Bottom line, there is NO catalyst for a recovery anytime soon.  Will the market move north?  Sure.  Will it get back to 14,000 in 5 years?  Unlikely. 
We are in the midst of a sideways secular bear, which started in 2000.  Most secular cycles take a LONG time to change course.
 
Remember, the last bull market was driven by credit.  Plain and simple.  Where is the money coming from to drive a new secular bull market?  It isn't.  It used to be that companies could do a simple IPO or bond placement and get all the funds they need for growth.  Who's issuing debt now?  Nobody.  Who's writing IPO's?  Nobody.  And who would underwrite them?  How many new homeowners have 20% to pt down on a 250K house? (that's a tiny 60's house in my region of the country)  $50K???  30 year olds don't have it.  Their parents?  Brokerage account down 45%, they are worried about their own retirement.
 
The only caveat would be that our ELECTED officials have changed the course of history with their legislation and proposed legislation.  Things like national health care, tax reform, and massive social spending programs could potentially change the outcome of this game.  And none of us have any idea what that will look like if they get everything they want.  Hang on tight, we just finished the first loop on the rickety old roller coaster.  Two more laps to go. 
 You should check your facts.  The reality is that there were numerous multi-billion investment grade bond issuance in the corporate market in January and February....Conoco and Cisco were two of the deals I recall off the top of my head.

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

I know.  When I say NOBODY is issuing debt, that is an exaggeration.  PFE, DUK, T, lots of energy/utility companies come to mind.  But the reality is, the volume is a mere trickle compared to what it used to be.  And that will persist for some time.  We used to have multiple new issues coming to market daily.  The majority of our bond inventory used to be new issues.  It is now 90-95% secondary market.

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