The Federal Reserve isn't expected to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting, but the November 1-2 gathering will be closely watched for signs that the central bank is preparing to make a move when it reconvenes in December.
The futures market is currently predicting a 78% probability that the Fed will squeeze policy on December 14, based on Fed funds pricing via CME as of October 25. By contrast, the probability of a rate hike for next week's meeting is priced at just 8%.
The market may be confident about the December FOMC meeting, but New York Fed President Bill Dudley prefers to err on the side of ambiguity... for now. "There isn't this tremendous urgency to act on monetary policy right now," he told The Wall Street Journal last week. "It's not like if we wait a meeting or don't wait a meeting that it has huge…