Our key takeaway from the FOMC minutes released today is that they can keep traders off-balance going into Fed Chair Yellen's speech on Friday, August 26th. These minutes read dovish (as we expected here and here). But this week's NY Fed Pres Dudley's hawkish comments probably find their way into Fed Chair Yellen's speech next week. That should rattle markets (SPY). With all that said, chances are slim the Fed hikes rates before the elections unless the next jobs number is another monster.
These minutes reflect the Fed's view July 27th. Dovish
Many judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information." (Page 11 of PDF)
From that you have enough gridlock to say that the Fed isn't going to move.
Yellen's Speech August 26th Can Be Hawkish Opposite These Minutes
Since these minutes, you had one blowout jobs number.
Look at what they said about… Read More …