By Krishna Memani, CIO
As the summer ends, and the air gets heavy with anticipation about presidential politics and the direction of U.S. and global monetary policy, here are my four key views on the markets:
1. The Federal Reserve (Fed) does not tighten in September.
What's more, it probably will not tighten in December, either. Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech last month at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to some extent, and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer's rejoinder to a larger extent, has stoked expectations that the Fed may raise rates in September. While the markets are assigning a real probability to that possibility, I still firmly believe the Fed is unlikely to move in September or December.
Yes, I know all the arguments that point to a Fed rate hike coming sooner rather than later:
- The U.S. economy has rebounded from a dismal first half of 2016 and growth is likely